Our numbers have Texas Tech as the number 1 rated defense in the nation. In the KenPom ratings, Texas Tech has the number 2 ranked adjusted defensive efficiency rating in the nation. While these college road environments are tough to play in, we see a clear edge on Texas Tech. We are going to back the better overall team here, and we will live with the result. They say defense travels in all sports, we will look to cash this ticket behind that theory today.

There's a lot of value on this moneyline if you head over to FanDuel. Nearly all major books have Texas State priced between (-200) and (-230). Texas State is 2-0 against the Ragin Cajuns this season. We like the spread, but we will grab this outlying moneyline number while we can.

We like this price over at DraftKings. Colorado is coming off of a big win against Arizona, and they already beat Utah back on February 12th. Our numbers suggest this one should be a true pick em, so will will grab the (+110) value on the dog.

It's important to understand the why behind this bet. First off, there is 0 betting value on Colby Covington. The majority of public bettors are either throwing Colby moneyline into their parlays, or they are betting him to win by decision. Jorge Masvidal is coming off of 2 losses, but they were both to current champion Kamaru Usman. Prior to that, Masvidal looked like he finally found a perfect fit at 170. He had 3 straight wins against Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz. The numbers suggest Jorge Masvidal has the striking edge against Covington. Colby Covington has the wrestling edge, but Masvidal's takedown defense has been much improved since the move to 170. With the UFC being such a volatile sport, we can live with taking flyers in these spots. These two fighters went from being best friends, to HATING each other. There is a lot of pride and emotion in this fight, expect to see the best of Gamebred Masvidal tonight.

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