We like this spot getting 7 points behind the Seahawks. Seattle’s defense is quietly becoming one of the better units in the NFL. The Seahawks defense was already very good against the run. The addition of Leonard Williams will only further improve their run defense. Seattle also has a secondary with 3 all pro caliber players in it (Tariq Woolen, Jamal Adams, Devon Witherspoon). Seahawks rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon has one of the highest coverage grades in the NFL through the first 8 weeks. The Ravens have a very good defense as well. Baltimore has the best pass coverage metrics in the league currently, but they have played a lot of below average QBs. Since week 1, not a single one of the Seahawks opponents have outscored them by more than 4 points. That includes games on the road against the Lions and Bengals. We bought the half point to get us a full 7 point touchdown cushion. Seahawks +7 for a full unit is our wager.

This won’t be a popular bet today. The large majority of public tickets are on the Bengals side of this spread. This looks to be a great sell high on Cincinnati, and buy low on Buffalo. The Bengals are coming off of a huge win against the 49ers last week where their offense looked as good as ever. That being said, we never want to base our wagers off of a one week sample size. There are 8 weeks of data this season. When you factor in the full season sample size, the Bills are better just about everywhere in this matchup. Buffalo ranks 3rd in the NFL in the DVOA metric power rankings, which are adjusted to the team's strength of schedule. The Bengals rank 13th overall in total DVOA. Buffalo ranks higher on both sides of the ball in those adjusted metrics. Data sources such as PFF have the Bills ranked 6th in their power rankings, with the Bengals down at 25th in between teams like the Colts and Steelers. Our model at SteadyPicks suggests this game should be a true pick 'em. The Bills have not covered a spread in 4 weeks so we seem to be getting a little extra value. We will trust the data here and grab the +2.5 points behind who the numbers suggest is the better overall team. Bills +2.5 is our wager. Get your popcorn out for what should be a nail biter on Sunday Night football.

The Raiders fired their head coach Josh McDaniels, and their GM this week. Las Vegas also made a change at the QB position. Aidan O’Connell will start in place of Jimmy Garappolo. We often see teams get a spark after an in season head coaching change. The Raiders defense ranks above the league average in both pass rush and pass coverage. Daniel Jones will be back under center for the Giants after missing the last 3 games. Jones has struggled under pressure throughout his career, and especially this season. The Giants lost one of their top playmakers in Darren Waller, and their offensive line is still dealing with injuries. The Giants defense has a good pass rush, but they struggle defending the run and have been terrible in pass coverage. The Raiders have highly skilled playmakers on offense with Davonte Adams and Josh Jacobs. We anticipate the Raiders offense being able to have success against this Giants defense. Raiders -1 is our wager. Our stake is a half unit.