We see value in getting the hook on the home dogs in this matchup. The Texans have been a bright surprise in the NFL this season. Houston has a rookie QB (CJ Stroud) and rookie head coach (Demeco Ryans). While this QB and head coach duo looks to be a special one, we anticipate some growing pains along the way. CJ Stroud’s passing metrics with a clean pocket are phenomenal (111.5 passer rating). However, he has a 59.5 passer rating when pressured. The Panthers defense isn’t very good, but their one strength is their pass rush. The Panthers also have a rookie QB in Bryce Young, but a veteran head coach with Frank Reich. Carolina is the only team in the NFL who has not won a game or covered a spread this season. We are going to grab the +3.5 with the home dogs.

We are going to lay the points with the home team in this matchup. The 49ers are coming off of back to back road losses. San Francisco has won all 3 of their home games this season by 18 points or more, including a 32 point victory over the Dallas Cowboys. The 49ers defense has an elite pass rush, and they are very good in pass coverage. While Joe Burrow has been getting sacked less frequently this season, he’s being pressured a lot. Burrow currently holds a 70.7 passer rating under pressure, so we have some concerns if the Bengals offensive line can’t hold up. It looks like Brock Purdy will be available to start after clearing concussion protocol. In a worst case scenario, if Purdy exits the game, San Francisco has a very good backup QB in Sam Darnold. The Bengals are coming off of a bye week, so they had some additional time to prepare for this game. However, our concern with the Bengals is their defensive struggles. Cincinnati has been really bad defending the run. This looks to be a tough matchup against a 49ers offensive with an elite rushing attack. Our wager is 1 unit on the 49ers to win by 5 points or more.

Our wager in this matchup comes down to the Jaguars offensive edge. The Steelers offense currently ranks bottom 7 in the NFL by the DVOA metrics. DVOA metrics are adjusted to the opponent's strength of schedule. Data resources such as PFF (which are not adjusted) have the Steelers offense ranked 3rd worst in the NFL. The Jaguars offense had some struggles early in the season, but they’ve scored 93 points in their last 3 games (Bills, Colts, Saints). Jacksonville had an extra few days to prepare for this game. Both defenses grade out pretty close, but there is a clear cut edge for the Jags offensively. Our wager is on the Jaguars moneyline.

We don’t bet a lot of parlays at SteadyPicks, but this is one that we are willing to jump in on at a (+110) price. The odds imply that the most vulnerable leg of parlay is the Cowboys. The Rams certainly have the offense to go stride for stride with Dallas. However, it’s important to note that Rams QB Matthew Stafford really struggles under pressure. He has a 58.8 passer rating when pressured. Stafford will certainly be under pressure by the Dallas pass rush. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has significantly better numbers in Dallas. Dak’s completion percentage is 20% higher at home this season. It looks to be a bad matchup for the Rams. For the other two legs of this parlay, the Ravens should have no problem handling business in Arizona. Baltimore is better in every metric across the board. The Philadelphia Eagles have a tough road divisional matchup against Washington. The Eagles defense made a huge acquisition to boost their secondary, and already held one of the top run defenses and pass rushes in the league. We feel good about all 3 legs of this parlay.

These 8.5 point spreads can be tricky, so we are going to get creative with our play tonight. We are going to roll with a good old Wong Teaser. Following the Wong Teaser strategy has historically been highly profitable. With Wong Teasers, you want to look for spreads that are -7.5 or -8.5 with favorites, or +1.5 or +2.5 with underdogs. These specific spreads allow you to move through the 3 most important key numbers in football (3, 6, 7). The lower that the total of the game is, the better it is for this Wong strategy. Less expected scoring means less expected variance. For the first leg of our teaser, we are going to move the Bills from -8.5 to -2.5. For the 2nd leg, we will head over to Sunday Night Football in the Bears vs. Chargers game. We will tease the Chargers from -8.5 to -2.5, again moving through 3 key numbers. DraftKings is offering a standard (-120) for all 2 team 6 point teasers. This is about 10 cents better than the rest of the market. Always shop for the best number, as it's very important to get the best possible odds on these teasers.