The 3 point spread may surprise some bettors. The Dolphins are 5-1 both straight up, and against the spread. They have looked the part as a potential Super Bowl contender. That being said, there is a reason this line moved from Eagles -1.5 to Eagles -3. As talented as Miami’s offense is, they have a lot of holes defensively. It’s important to look at DVOA metrics with Miami (which are adjusted to their strength of schedule). Amongst the Dolphins 5 wins, they have played the Patriots, Broncos, Giants, and Panthers. Those teams have a combined 3 wins. The DVOA metrics rank Miami as the 6th worst defense in the NFL (ranked 27th overall). The Eagles have also had a favorable schedule to this point, but their DVOA ranking defensively is just outside the top 10. The Eagles will get back several key players on defense (including Jalen Carter). Philadelphia is also expected to have Lane Johnson available, who was originally expected to be out. Miami has played 3 road games this season. They won by 2 points against the Chargers, won by 1 score against the Patriots, and lost by 28 to the Bills (as 3 point underdogs). Miami has won every home game by 15 points or more, so the spot to fade them looks to be away from Miami. Rather than laying the 3 points, we will opt for a reasonable moneyline price. We expect the more complete team, who is playing at home, coming off of a tough loss, to bounce back and win. Eagles on the moneyline for 1 unit is our wager.

We are going to lay the -3 points behind the Browns today. Browns QB Deshaun Watson is listed as questionable, but is expected to play. Regardless of whether or not Watson plays, our angle with the Browns is behind their defense. Cleveland's defense ranks top 3 in the NFL in nearly every QB pressure and pass rush metric. This defensive line is fierce! Colts backup QB Gardner Minshew has struggled against defenses who generate a lot of pressure. This looks to be a tough matchup for Minshew. The Browns offense hasn’t looked the same since Nick Chubb went down. This could be a good spot to get back on track against a defense that has been very poor in pass coverage. The Colts got lit up by Trevor Lawerence and the Jaguars last week (allowed 37 points). If the Browns offense can muster up some scores today, we trust their defense to do the rest. Our stake is a half unit.

Neither one of these teams have provided us many good reasons to put our money behind them in recent weeks. That being said, the Broncos defense has been historically bad to this point. The Packers are coming off of their bye week. Over the last two seasons, Packers head coach Matt LaFluer has had his team ready to roll after the bye week. The Packers have had double digit victories following the bye the last 2 seasons. Not only do our metrics suggest the Denver defense is the worst in the league, but PFF and the DVOA metrics also have the Broncos ranked dead last in the NFL defensively. Our wager is a half unit on the Packers -1.

We get a lot of questions about why we rarely put up teasers anymore. The short answer is because the sportsbooks continue to juice them up more and more each year. You used to be able to get a 2 team 6 point teaser around (-110) or (-120) at worst. Now bettors are paying (-130) juice for that same 6 point teaser. The Wong Teaser strategy has become increasingly popular amongst bettors, which has been a profitable strategy long term at (-110) to (-120) odds. If you are not familiar with the Wong Teaser rules, we encourage you to do a quick Google search. This teaser here fits in the Wong criteria. We are moving both of these spreads through 3 key numbers (3,6,7). Our wager is a half unit. Be sure to shop for the best possible odds!