The Dallas Cowboys have had an extremely favorable schedule over the last month and a half. They have played their last 3 games at home in Dallas. Their two games prior to that were against the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants (in Tommy DeVito’s first career start). To further put this into perspective, Dallas has been a double digit favorite in 4 of their last 5 games. This will be the first time since week 10 that the Cowboys aren’t favored to win. We really like this spot for the Bills, who are extremely tough to beat at home in Buffalo. There are a few factors to consider in the matchup. The Bills have one of the best goal to go offenses in the league. The Cowboys defense ranks dead last in the NFL in goal to go situations. We expect the Bills to be able to capitalize when they get inside the 10. The Bills offense has one of the best early down success rates in the NFL, while the Cowboys defense ranks well below the league average in this metric. The Bills defense is a solid unit, but they are very good at getting pressure on opposing QBs, and at generating turnovers. Dak Prescott is in MVP form right now coming off of 5 straight favorable games. However, history suggests that he struggles in these situations on the road against opponents like Buffalo. The Bills on the moneyline for 1 unit is our wager.

This won’t be a popular bet amongst the public bettors, but the Patriots look to be catching a lot of sharp and respected money in this matchup. Each of the resources we use for cash/ticket splits suggest the tickets are greatly favoring Kansas City, but the bulk of the actual cash is heavier on the Patriots side. In simpler terms, this looks to be a spot where the $20-$100 bettors are getting down on the Chiefs, but the higher stake bettors prefer the Pats side of this spread. New England's offense is bad, and that concerns us with this wager. However, their defense is very good. The Pats don’t force a lot of turnovers, and they don’t rack up the sack numbers, but they do everything else extremely well. New England ranks 6th in the NFL in yards per play, 3rd in rush yards per game, 1st in yards per carry, 1st in rushes of 10+ yards, and top 10 in nearly every red zone metric. They also rank top 10 in series conversion rate, and inside the top 15 in nearly every pass coverage metric. The 37 point total in this game is by far the lowest total in a Chiefs game all season. Getting +8.5 points in a game with a low total is always an appealing bet for us. Our feeling is that New England should only need a couple scores to stay within this spread. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense do not have the explosive play ability of years past. Mahomes passing metrics under pressure have dropped drastically this season due to his wide receivers inability to make plays. It’s a hard bet to stomach, but we are taking the +8.5 with the Patriots for a half unit.

Backing the Carolina Panthers is not something many bettors can stomach these days. This team is 1-12 overall, and has covered the spread just twice all season. The Panthers offense has been horrible. They rank near the bottom of the league in nearly every offensive metric outside of turnovers. Surprisingly, the Panthers rank inside the top 10 in turnovers per game. The Panthers defense is continuing to get healthier. Carolina’s defense has been very good in pass coverage. They also have a good pass rush when Brian Burns is healthy. Burns is listed as questionable, but expected to play. The tough part about backing Carolina right now is that their offense doesn’t look to be improving as the season progresses. However, it is worth noting that Bryce Young’s passer rating is about 12 points higher at home. Falcons QB Desmond Ridder has struggled in these outdoor road games. Over 5% of Desmond Ridder’s dropbacks this season have been graded as turnover worthy plays. There’s also been some suspect line movement in this game. The Falcons are catching the bulk of the tickets, yet this line has fallen through a key number (3) at several sportsbooks. We are going to grab this reasonably priced +3, and root for the home dogs to win outright.

Tyreek Hill has officially been ruled out for this game. Our initial feeling is that the 8.5 spread prior to this news was based on Tyreek HIll likely being out. This move from 8.5 to 7 feels like a slight overreaction considering Hill’s injury was already priced into the spread. Our model suggests this spread should be closer to 10 points with Tyreek Hill active. We hate to double dip on our teaser, but we see strong value on the Dolphins at -7. Miami still has a massive advantage on offense without Hill. The Jets offense has been unreliable all season. This is a tough matchup for Zach Wilson against a stout Miami defense. Our wager is a half unit on the Dolphins -7.

This is one of the few spots that we will bet just about every single time at SteadyPicks. Whenever we get a divisional game, with the home team favored by double digits, it’s an auto bet. This has been a highly profitable spot for us over the years. The Cardinals are coming off of an outright win as 6 point underdogs against Pittsburgh. Don’t forget these Cardinals upset the Cowboys at home earlier this season, and kept a game against the Raiders within a score. Arizona should have some extra motivation today against their division rivals. San Francisco has a big game coming up against the Ravens next week. This looks like a prime lookahead spot. We will grab the +12 points with the Cardinals. Our stake is a half unit.

For our teaser of the week, we are looking at two teams who we expect to bounce back from tough losses last week. The Chiefs lost at home to the Bills. The Dolphins lost at home to Titans on Monday Night Football. The key with this teaser is that we are moving through the 3 most important key numbers (3,6,7). Both of these games have totals set in the 30’s. A lower total is always good with teasers. We recommend heading over to DraftKings, as they offer a standard (-120) price on 2 team, 6 point teasers. Some other books have their 2 team, 6 point teasers priced around (-135). Always shop for the best number! Our stake is a half unit.