We have been patiently waiting for a +3.5 on the Eagles at (-110). Throughout the week, the books have had the +3.5’s juiced between (-115) and (-125). PointsBet has the (-110) posted, and we are jumping in on the Eagles. Philly is coming off of a bad loss last week at home against the 49ers (42-19). The Dallas Cowboys also got rolled by the 49ers back in week 5 (42-10). In the first matchup this season between the Eagles and Cowboys, Philadelphia held on for a 28-23 victory. According to the DVOA metrics, the Cowboys have the far better defense in this matchup. The Eagles have a slight edge on offense. It’s interesting to note that Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has done a fantastic job taking care of the football this season. Less than 1.5% of his dropbacks have been graded as turnover worthy plays, and he has a 97 passer rating under pressure. When Dak is taking care of the football, this Cowboys team is very difficult to beat. That being said, Dak has been facing some of the league's worst pass rushes and secondaries over the last month (Giants, Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks). Dak faced two teams with a strong pass rush (Eagles & 49ers). He lost them both. Dallas has had the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL to this point, with the Eagles having the 6th toughest. Philly has wins over the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Bills over the last couple of months. Dallas has yet to beat a team who is viewed as a contender. Their win over the Seahawks last week was less than impressive. Until the Cowboys prove they can beat good teams, we will gladly take the +3.5 points behind a team that we know can beat good teams. Eagles +3.5 for 1 unit is our wager.

It’s important to note that this line has come down from Bills +3 to Bills +1. The sharp action came in on Buffalo and moved this spread through the most important key number when betting the NFL (3). If you have a Bills +3 ticket in your pocket, you should feel great. For those who waited until Sunday to bet this game, you have some decisions to make. Do you chase the steam and take a poor number on the Bills, or do you grab an appealing number on the Chiefs now that the market has shifted? Our one piece of advice would be that chasing steam is often a losing proposition. These two teams grade out extremely close to one another, and the Bills are coming off of a bye week. This game looks to be pretty close to a true pick 'em. That being said, this game is being played in Arrowhead Stadium, which is one of the better home field advantages in the NFL. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have performed extremely well coming off of a loss, and when favored by less than 3 points. Mahomes is 16-5 against the spread when favored by 3 points or less. It’s been a highly profitable proposition to back him in these spots. Chiefs -1 is our wager.

There’s been odd line movement in this game. The Jets opened as +6 point underdogs early in the week under the impression it would be Tim Boyle or Trevor Siemian starting at QB. The Texans were catching the majority of the early tickets at the -6 spread. News came out that Zach Wilson is going to start, and this line quickly fell to the -4 to -5 range. The Texans continued to catch the majority of tickets. Despite the public biting between -4 and -5 on the Texans, the books dropped the line again toward the Jets. It now sits at 3.5. There are several variables to consider with these line moves. First let’s consider the QB situation for the Jets. Is replacing Boyle/Siemian with Wilson worth 2.5 points to the spread? Is it sharp money driving this line toward the Jets? Or do we have some reverse line movement going on? Unfortunately, we don’t have the answers. We have seen these spots enough to feel comfortable siding with the outcome that the sportsbooks would prefer. With all the Texans money at a variety of numbers, the bookmakers are looking for an outright Jets win here. The Jets have the far better defense, and Zach Wilson should be a slight boost for their offense. Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud has been phenomenal. Stroud’s struggles have mostly come on the road. This will be a tough test for the young rookie. His top WR is out (Tank Dell). Texans starting TE Dalton Shultz is out. A starting tackle is out as well for Houston. We will take the +3.5 points behind the Jets. Our stake is a half unit.

Both of these teams are coming off of much needed bye weeks. Each team has also lost 2 straight games. The stakes are high in this matchup if these teams want to keep their playoff hopes alive. Our wager purely comes down to the numbers. Starting with these defenses, the Vikings grade out better in nearly every key defensive metric. The lone weakness of the Vikings defense has been struggling in 3rd down situations. However, the Raiders offense ranks 26th in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage. On offense, the Raiders rank outside the top 20 in nearly every metric outside of QB hits allowed, and offensive penalty yards per game. Minnesota’s offense looked horrible in their last game against Chicago. It’s important to note that Minnesota did not have Justin Jefferson in that game. Jefferson is the centerpiece of this Vikings offense, and will return to the lineup today. Vikings QB Josh Dobbs had an extra week to become more familiar with the Vikings offense. The Raiders received a nice spark with the head coaching change to Antonio Pierce. This team plays hard for Pierce, and he looks to be a great leader for the team. On the flip side of that, Pierce is still a first time head coach, who has a rookie QB, and a mediocre defense. The Las Vegas home field advantage doesn’t seem to be very significant. A lot of Vikings fans will be in the building. We will side with who our numbers suggest is the slightly better team. Vikings -2.5 for a half unit is our wager.

This teaser slightly conflicts with our Chiefs -1 wager. This is a rare spot where we are comfortable taking a slight middle position. The goal is to either cash both tickets, or to slightly minimize our risk on the Chiefs bet. Both legs of this teaser fit the Wong Teaser strategy. Each of the legs is moving through 3 key numbers (3,6,7). The Ravens grade out higher on both sides of the ball against the Rams, with a significant edge on defense. Baltimore has been dominant at home this season. It’s a tough spot for the Rams to travel across the country and play this physical Ravens defense. The Bills are coming off of a bye week. Buffalo finds themselves in close to a must win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. Buffalo has a tough remaining schedule, and each game is crucial. Historically, these two teams have played each other extremely close. The metrics are neck and neck with these teams. We anticipate a close, competitive game. This tease should have a great chance to cash. Our stake is a half unit.