It’s been a tough season for Bills bettors to this point. Buffalo has not covered a spread since October 1st, when they blew out the Miami Dolphins (48-20). The Bills are 2-3 overall in their last 5 games. Their 2 wins came against the Giants and Buccaneers. The Broncos are 3-2 in their last 5 games, and have won 2 straight heading into this game (Packers & Chiefs). Denver is also coming off of their bye week, so they had an extra week to rest and prepare for this game. Injuries will mostly affect Buffalo in this matchup, who will be without a handful of defensive starters. The Bills offense is healthy outside of TE Dawson Knox, but rookie TE Dalton Kincaid has been very good in place of Knox. For us, this bet comes down to our power rankings. The Broncos grade out as one of the worst defenses in the league. The adjusted DVOA metrics have Denver’s defense ranked dead last. Regardless of the question marks regarding the Bills defense, we expect their offense to be able to pour on the points tonight. The Broncos defense has allowed 117 points in 3 road games this season (including 70 against the Dolphins). Rather than lay (-115) juice on a flat key number, we are going to pay a little extra juice to move it below a key number. Buying a half point on a -7 is not something we recommend getting in the habit of, but in this particular case we are making an exception. Our wager is on the Bills to win this game by 7 points or more.