Penn State did not show up last time they were in the bright lights this season (lost to Ohio State). It’s important to consider that Penn State has a young QB in Drew Allar who had never been on a stage that big before. It was a hostile road environment against one of the best defenses in the nation. So while Drew Allar certainly did not pass that test, we aren’t ready to write him off just yet. Allar will be back on the big stage this weekend against one of the best teams in the nation in Michigan. However, this time around Allar will have the Penn State crowd behind him. Allar has a 71% completion rate and a 14-1 TD to INT ratio at home this season. Penn State as a team is outsourcing their opponents at home by an average margin of 45 to 9. Michigan is 9-0, and has been rolling their opponents. Our concern is that Michigan had a cake walk schedule. They have been a 20+ point favorite in nearly every game this season. This will be the first true test for Michigan. This test will come against a well rounded team in an environment that is very tough to win in. Penn State’s only chance at a college football playoff spot would be to win this game. Penn State coach James Franklin is under tremendous pressure to get a win over a top 10 team. We are going to grab the points behind an extremely hungry and talented home underdog. Penn State +5.5 is our bet.

It’s important to note that Florida State won this matchup last year 45-3. Miami was blown out in every facet of the game. The Hurricanes only had 62 passing yards the entire game. Some bettors will want nothing to do with this bet knowing the beatdown that took place last season. For us, that game last year doesn’t mean a whole lot. These are two completely different teams that have both taken major strides forward this season. Our metrics suggest that Miami actually has the edge defensively in this matchup. Miami’s defense has very few weak spots. They are good against the run, in pass coverage, and they generate a lot of pressure on opposing QBs. Miami’s offense didn’t show up last week against NC State, but they’ve played well for the large majority of the season. The Hurricanes look to have all the ingredients needed to keep this game within two scores. We expect Miami to play with a little extra juice this week given their embarrassing loss last year. This is a big in-state rivalry in Florida. Miami with the +14.5 points is our wager.

We have been keeping a close eye on this Ole MIss team over the last two months. After leading Alabama on the road at halftime in week 4, Ole Miss ended up sputtering in the second half and losing that game. Since then, Lane Kiffin's team has beaten everyone they have faced. This includes a win against LSU, a road win at Auburn, and an impressive win last week against a very good Texas A&M team. Georgia was laying -14.5 points last week at home against Missouri and won that game by just 9 points. We also saw Auburn give Georgia a scare about a month ago. This will be Georgia’s toughest test of the season, so far. Ole Miss has a sound defense, and an explosive offense. If Ole Miss can find a way to win this game, it would put them in an extremely interesting position within the college football playoff picture. A loss for Ole Miss would just about seal their college football playoff fate. While we aren’t overly confident about an outright upset, we feel comfortable grabbing the 11 points in what should be a competitive SEC matchup. Ole Miss +11 is our wager.