Simply put, we believe Sergey Spivak has an edge over Derrick Lewis almost everywhere in this matchup. That said, Derrick Lewis has the ultimate equalizer with his knockout power. This is one of those fights where Spivak bettors will be sweating that big shot from start to finish. Sergey Spivak has fought guys with big power. He has wins against Tai Tuivasa and Greg Hardy, who are relatively similar stylistically to Derrick Lewis. We also have to acknowledge that Spivak has been knocked out twice in the UFC (Tom Aspinall & Walt Harris). So while we do like this bet a lot on the Spivak side, the Derrick Lewis knockout is always live, especially against someone who's been prone to taking big shots. For that reason, it's hard to recommend betting this fight big. Our stake is 1 unit.

This bet here is all about the value. Is it likely to hit? No, but is it worth a small sprinkle? We believe so, and here is why. The price for this fight to go to a decision is around (+450). The oddsmakers are giving this fight roughly an 18% chance to hit the scorecards. That being said, we believe the only path to victory for Derrick Lewis is a finish. His last 6 fights have all been either Lewis scoring a knockout, or him getting knocked out. Sergey Spivak is higher volume striker, and a better grappler. The way we see it, we are getting an extra (+350) in value on the decision prop by considering the extremely low likelihood of a Derrick Lewis win by decision. Just a small quarter unit flyer.

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