This Thursday Night Football game has one of the lowest totals in NFL history. We have two struggling offenses, and two stout defenses in this matchup. Both teams have a backup QB starting. The Patriots benched their starter Mac Jones. Steelers starting QB Kenny Pickett was injured last week. In a game where points are expected to be at a premium, it’s surprising to be able to get 6 points on the Patriots. Make no mistake, the Patriots offense is terrible. They’ve scored 16 total points in their last 3 games. However, New England should only need a couple of scores to stay within 6. We are not overly concerned about Steelers backup QB, Mitch Trubisky, lighting up the scoreboard. When we dive into the Patriots offensive metrics, there are a few areas to be optimistic about. New England’s offense ranks top 10 in early down success rate, and they are very good in goal to go situations. The Patriots also rank top 5 in the NFL in limiting offensive penalties. On the defensive side of the ball, the one flaw of the Patriots defense has been their inability to generate pressure on opposing QBs. Outside of that, Bill Belichick has a top 10 defense. We will take the +6 points with the Patriots. Our stake is a half unit.