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Chargers vs. Cowboys 8:15pm
Cowboys -1.5 (-110)
A few factors swayed us over to the Cowboys side in this matchup. Offensively, the Chargers have been the better unit to this point based on the offensive DVOA metrics. We like looking at DVOA metrics at SteadyPicks because these are adjusted based on the opponents that these teams have faced. The Chargers offense ranks top 5 in offensive DVOA, whereas the Cowboys offense ranks slightly below the league average. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cowboys hold the advantage. The Cowboys rank top 5 in defensive DVOA, whereas the Chargers defense ranks 25th. Chargers top pass rusher Joey Bosa is listed as questionable, and did not practice for the majority of this week. If Bosa is out, it would be a huge hit to this already struggling Chargers defense. The Cowboys pass rush led by Micah Parsons is elite. Dallas ranks 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate, and 3rd in adjusted sack rate. The Cowboys are not a team you want to fall behind against, or find yourself in frequent passing situations against. The Chargers pass the ball about 63% of the time, and have struggled running the ball since week 1. Their running back Austin Eckler will be back, but this still looks to be a tough matchup for the Chargers. There will be a ton of Cowboys fans in the Chargers stadium tonight, almost making this more of a neutral site matchup. We will lay the -1.5 points behind who our metrics suggest has the more complete team.
(Pick posted 10/16 at 12:47pm via BetMGM)

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