Jets +9.5 (-110)
This is a tough bet to stomach behind a shaky Jets offense. Zach Wilson has been benched. The Jets will roll with Tim Boyle, who was the teams 3rd string QB heading into the season. Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury in week 1. Zach Wilson is lost. So here we are with Boyle. The 5th year QB out of Western Kentucky has only thrown 120 career passes. 9 of those passes were interceptions, which doesn’t look great on paper. The Jets offense has one of the league's best RBs in Breece Hall, and an elite WR in Garrett Wilson. On the defensive side of the ball, the Jets remain one of the best units in the NFL. They are extremely good in pass coverage, which is key against a dangerous Dolphins receiving core. The Jets also have a tremendous pass rush. Tua Tagovailoa has been fantastic with a clean pocket (117 passer rating), but he has a 55 passer rating under pressure. Getting nearly 10 points with a home divisional dog is a spot we can live with, regardless of how this play turns out. These double digit home dogs have cashed over 60% of the time for us. These are usually tough bets to stomach, and this one is no different. This game has the lowest point total of any Dolphins game this entire season. It’s also worth noting that the ticket splits favor the Dolphins -9.5, but the majority of the cash looks to be behind the Jets spread. This line has fallen toward the Jets despite those heavy Mimai ticket splits. Our wager is a half unit on the Jets +9.5.
(Pick posted 11/24 at 10:55am via BetMGM)
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