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Chiefs vs. Lions 8:20pm EST
Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Our initial lean heading into this game (prior to the Travis Kelce news) was on the Lions +6.5. We patiently waited to see if a +7 would come back on the Lions. Unfortunately, that did not occur. Travis Kelce’s knee injury, and Chris Jones' unlikely availability, have dropped this line from +6.5 to +4.5. The betting value on the Lions has partially slipped away, having moved through a key number of 6. Kelce’s status is still currently up in the air. He’s being labeled as a true game time decision. Based on the 2 point line movement, bettors should operate under the assumption that Travis Kelce will not play. There’s no question that Kelce is a key piece to the Chiefs offense. However, we aren’t so sure that his absence is worth a full 2 points to the spread. It’s very rare that any non QB would impact the spread that much. Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones was not expected to play while the line was at 6.5, so we have good reason to believe the line move is mostly Travis Kelce driven. It’s worth noting, Lions QB Jared Goff has played much better at home in Detroit than he has on the road since joining the team. Goff had a 23-3 TD to INT ratio in the dome in Detroit last season, versus a 6-4 TD to INT ratio away from the Lions stadium. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown 3 or more TD’s in all 5 of his week 1 starts. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid are known to come out of the gate hot. We are going to lay the -4.5 on the Chiefs. If Travis Kelce ends up playing, we should get good closing line value on this ticket. Our wager is a half unit only. Remember it’s a long NFL season ahead of us. Data is very limited this early in the season. Save your larger wagers for later when we have more information to guide our bets. Gamble responsibly, and enjoy the game!
(Pick posted 9/7 at 1:44pm via PointsBet)
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