We have an exciting Saturday night NFC showdown on the menu between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions. Both of these teams are playoff bound, and look to be legitimate contenders in the NFC. We are siding with the Cowboys primarily because this game is taking place in Dallas at AT&T stadium. Lions QB Jared Goff has significantly better metrics at home in Detroit than he does on the road. While this is a road game for Goff, it’s indoors in a dome. When playing indoors on the road this season, Jared Goff has a 70% completion percentage, 113 passer rating, and a 5-0 TD to INT split. When Goff is outdoors on the road, he has a 63% completion percentage, 82 passer rating, and 5-4 TD to INT split. Recent history suggests that Goff’s road regression will be less significant in this matchup. However, our bigger concern with Jared Goff are his metrics when pressured. With a clean pocket, Goff holds a 114 passer rating. When pressured, Goff’s passer rating drops to 63. The Lions have a very good offensive line, but the Cowboys have an elite pass rush behind Micah Parsons. There is little doubt that Jared Goff will be pressured tonight. He ranks near the bottom of the NFL in turnover worthy plays when pressured, so it’s fair to question if Goff will be prone to turnovers today. Not only is the Cowboys pass rush elite, but their pass coverage defense ranks top 10 in nearly every metric. When playing at home in AT&T stadium, those pass coverage metrics bump up to top 5. Detroit has a strong rushing attack on offense, and the Cowboys did get torched by James Cook and the Bills rushing attack a couple weeks ago. Last week against the Dolphins, the Cowboys run defense played much better. The Cowboys run defense metrics are significantly better at home versus on the road. They rank top 10 in yards per carry and top 5 in rush yards per game in Dallas. The Cowboys rank outside of the top 20 in those metrics away from Dallas. We mentioned Jared Goff’s home/road QB splits earlier in the write up. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has a 74% completion percentage, 122 passer rating, and a 20-2 TD to INT ratio in Dallas. The Cowboys offense is averaging nearly 40 points per game in their stadium. With a wounded Detroit secondary, this looks to be a good spot for Dak to get back on track with a big performance. We are going to lay the -5.5 points with the Cowboys.