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SteadyPicks 5 Best Bets For UFC 284
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Islam Makhachev
Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (+325)
This main event looks to be one of the best matchups of the year. Alexander Volkanovski will attempt to become a two division champion, and Islam Makhachev will defend his Lightweight belt. There have only been four UFC fighters in history to hold two belts, so this will be a massive accomplishment if Volk can go up in weight and get a win. We won’t dive too far into the stats here, but Volk is landing 6.7 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.3 for Islam. In terms of striking defense, Islam has the edge in significant strikes absorbed per minute (0.9 vs. 3.5 for Volk). For grappling, Islam averages 3.4 takedowns per 15 minutes, to Volk’s 1.7. For us this one comes down to the odds. The +325 odds suggest the books are implying Volk has roughly a 23% chance of winning. We believe he’s got a better chance than that, so we will gladly take the value here on the underdog. This fight will take place in Australia, where the crowd will be heavily behind Volk. Enjoy the fight!
Yair Rodriguez vs. Josh Emmett
Yair Rodriguez Moneyline (-175)
Josh Emmett carries an impressive 5 fight win streak into this matchup. That streak includes wins over Calvin Kattar, Dan Ige, Shane Burgos, & Michael Johnson. Yair Rodriguez is coming off of a win against Brian Ortega (stopped due to injury), and a loss against Max Holloway. Rodriguez looked very sharp in both of those fights. The striking metrics in this matchup are very similar. Josh Emmett averages 4.2 significant strikes per minute, to Yair’s 4.6. Emmett has the slightly better striking defense, while Yair has the better striking accuracy. Yair Rodriguez is roughly 5 inches taller, and about 7 years younger. Yair is very dangerous with his kicks, and we like his chances to have the higher volume. Josh Emmett has big time knockout power, and likely the wrestling edge as well. However, if Emmett can’t land the knockout shot, Yair Rodriguez looks to have more paths to a victory. Our bet is one unit on Yair Rodriguez to win.
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown
Under 2.5 Total Rounds (-146)
A couple key notes with this bet. First, Jack Della Maddalena has only seen a judge's decision once in his 15 career fights. He’s hit the 3rd round twice (professional debut and in his contender series fight against Ange Loosa). Jack’s last 3 fights have all ended by first round KO. Randy Brown’s last 3 fights have all ended in a decision, but he has 11 finishes on his resume. This should be one of the most exciting fights of the night. Rather than pick a side, we will opt for someone to get a finish inside of 2.5 rounds.
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield
Jimmy Crute Moneyline (-185)
This fight will be a nail biter to watch for Jimmy Crute bettors. Alonzo Menifield has big time knockout power, he's coming off of back to back first round KO's. That said, by the metrics, Jimmy Crute has the better overall striking, and the more powerful striking. Crute averages double the amount of knockdowns per 15 minutes. He also lands more significant strikes per minute, and absorbs less. In the grappling & wrestling departments Crute has a significant edge, although Menifield does have good takedown defense (85%). Jimmy Crute is coming off of two losses against current champ Jahmal Hill, and Anthony Smith. However, this is a step down in competition and a great opportunity for Jimmy Crute to get back in the win column. We see more paths to victory for Crute, so that is where our bet is going. It is worth noting, the line movement in this fight has been a bit alarming. Crute opened as a (-225) favorite, and this line has fallen toward Menifield all week. There is definitely respected money coming in on the underdog based on the line movement, but we will stick to our guns and grab who we feel is the more well rounded fighter at a discounted price.
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Josh Culibao
Melsik Baghdasaryan Moneyline (-105)
For those who are not familiar with Melsik Baghdasaryan, this kid is a big time striker! He’s 2-0 in the UFC, with one win by KO and the other win by unanimous decision. Josh Culibao is a tough matchup, he’s coming off of a split decision win against Seungwoo Choi. It's worth noting, Choi has lost his last 3 fights, so that win has not aged particularly well. However, Josh Culibao displayed his toughness and skills in that fight, and this will be no easy task for Baghdasaryan. We almost bet the knockout here, but due to Josh Culbao’s toughness we opted for the moneyline. We don’t anticipate either one of these two taking the fight to the ground. Both have a 0 takedown average per 15 minutes. This fight should be an exciting one. Our stake is one unit on Melsik Baghdasaryan to win.
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