The market is signaling a lot of sharp action on the Patriots here. This line opened Bengals -4. The early respected wagers on the Patriots pushed this line to -3.5, and this is where things get interesting. The public ticket splits were heavily favoring the Bengals at -3.5. Despite that, the respected action has continued to drive this number in the Patriots direction. The line now sits at Bengals -3 at most books. BetRivers & Unibet have juiced 3.5’s available. According to the resources we use here at SteadyPicks, over 80% of the moneyline tickets are on the Bengals. However, over 80% of the total cash is reported on the Patriots moneyline. Keep in mind, across different resources these reported numbers will vary. That said, the resources that we trust clearly display the much larger wagers coming in on the Pats. Given this information, the line movement makes sense. Spread tickets and cash splits are balanced closer. The Bengals defense is severely banged up heading into this game. It’s also a must win game for the Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive. It will be cold and windy, which should play to the Pats benefit given their edge on defense. Give us the hook with the home dogs. Our bet is 1 unit.

This is a bet we are going to jump on early with the hopes of getting strong closing line value. Regardless of whether or not Jalen Hurts plays in this game, our data suggests that giving the Eagles 5.5 points is too many. There are 3 areas where this Cowboys team ranks below the league average. Those include run defense, pass blocking, and quarterback play. This Eagles roster has all of the ingredients needed to take advantage of those weak spots. The Eagles pass rush metrics rank top 3 in the league (PFF has them 1st), their pass coverage metrics rank top 5, and they have a great run blocking offensive line. So again, regardless of who suits up at QB, 5.5 points is too many for us to pass up. Gardner Minshew is one of the most capable backup QBs in the NFL. Going back to 2019, his passing metrics rank above many current starting QB’s. Minshew has been phenomenal with a clean pocket, and while the Cowboys do get a lot of pressure on the QB, the Eagles offensive line does a great job of keeping the pocket clean. The updated DVOA rankings have the Eagles ranked 2nd overall, only trailing the Bills. This is a rare spot where we believe we are getting the better overall team as a decent sized dog. Our bet is 2 units on the division dogs to keep this game within 5 points.

Rookie QB Malik WIllis will start this game for the Titans. The good news for Malik WIllis and the Titans offense is that the Texans are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Derrick Henry should have a lot of running room in this matchup. Malik Willis brings a rushing component as well. Willis got some playing time in the Titans first matchup versus the Texans earlier this season. He didn’t play particularly well, but the Titans did win the game by 7 points on the road. The Titans have the better defensive metrics across nearly every key category. The Jacksonville Jaguars are right on the Titans tail in this division, so this is a big game for Tennessee. Our bet is 1 unit on the Titans to cover the 3 points.

Pittsburgh Pennsylvania is expecting wind chills so cold this weekend that they are actually issuing warnings about being outside. The temperature is expected to be around 12 degrees, but it will feel closer to -3 degrees with the 15-20 mph wind chills. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett is a rookie, but he played 5 seasons at Pitt in college. He's familiar with this late December Pittsburgh weather. The Raiders have a physical offense line and strong rushing attack to lean on. Their receiving options are all healthy as well. However, defensively, this Raiders team has been bad. Outside of Maxx Crosby’s pass rushing ability, this is one of the worst defenses in the league. The Raiders rank at the bottom of the NFL in tackling, and they struggle in pass coverage and against the run. The adjusted DVOA metrics have the Steelers ranked much higher overall. Our bet is 1 unit on the Steelers to win.

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