It’s no secret that we have a slight biased factor here with Sean Brady. That being said, we did our best to evaluate this fight from a betting perspective the same way we would any other fight. Many UFC analysts believe that Sean Brady will be at a disadvantage in terms of his striking. Kelvin Gastelum is a high level striker, but the numbers suggest that Sean Brady is actually the more effective striker. Sean averages more significant strikes landed per minute, and he lands those strikes at a higher percentage. Some may argue that Gastelum holds the power advantage, with more KO’s on his resume. Gastelum’s last knockout was over 5 years ago back in 2017. We feel the striking exchanges in this matchup will be much closer than these other UFC analysts suggest. In terms of grappling, we see a clear cut edge for Sean Brady. Sean averages about 3 takedowns per 15 minutes. Kelvin Gastelum has 62% takedown defense. Sean Brady is extremely dangerous when he gets his opponents to the ground. Kelvin Gastelum has been submitted in 2 of his last 6 losses. Sean Brady is coming off of his first career loss against the #2 ranked welterweight in the world. There were several variables working against Sean in that fight. This fight sets up much better, taking place in Austin Texas versus Abu Dhabi. Outside of that lone loss, Sean Brady has beaten everyone put in front of him. This includes an extremely impressive grappling win over Craig Jones. Kelvin Gastelum has faced elite competition in his career, but he didn’t necessarily have a lot of success in those fights. Kelvin went 0-5 against Jared Cannonier, Robert Whittaker, Jack Hermansson, Darren TIll, and Israel Adesanya. Both of these fighters are extremely talented, but we see more paths to a victory for Sean Brady. Our wager is 3 units on Sean Brady to win.

Jalin Turner has a mediocre 13-7 record, but do not let those 7 losses fool you. Turner, also known as “The Tarantula”, has landed a finish in all of his UFC wins. His last 3 losses have come by decision, but Turner has been knocked out 3 times in his MMA career. Turner’s opponent Bobby Green has big time knockout capabilities. Green is coming off of a first round KO against Grant Dawson. However, Bobby Green has also been susceptible to getting knocked out. He’s been KO’d 4 times in his MMA career, including twice in 2022. It’s interesting to note that Jalin Turner has been vocal in the media this week stating that he didn’t want to take this fight on short notice. Dan Hooker was originally supposed to be fighting Bobby Green, but fell out due to injury. Maybe Jalin Turner’s comments mean nothing, but it was interesting that Turner genuinely seemed like he did not want to be in this fight on Saturday. With two fighters who are highly capable of getting a finish, we are going to roll with a 1 unit bet on this fight not to go the distance.

This looks to be a favorable matchup for the Hawaiin heavy hitter Puna Soriano. He will take on Dustin Stoltzfus, who is 1-4 since entering the UFC. Stoltzfus was knocked out by Abus Magomedov in his last fight, and was submitted in his two losses prior to that. Puna has 4 wins since joining the UFC (including his contender series fight). He won 3 of those by knockout, and 1 by decision. Puna does have a couple of submissions on his resume prior to joining the UFC. Stoltzfus was submitted twice recently, but those came by Gerald Meerschaert and Rodolfo Vieira. Puna does not bring the same submission threat as those two fighters. Stoltzfus may even have the grappling and wrestling advantage, so we don’t anticipate Puna looking for a sub. Our wager is 1 unit on Puna Soriano to win this fight either by knockout or decision.

To keep this short and simple, the implied probability at these (+240) odds is about 29%. We believe Beneil Dariush has greater than a 29% chance of winning this fight. Dariush is coming off of a loss to Charles Oliveira, but he was on a 8 fight win streak prior to that. Arman Tsarukyan is an extremely talented prospect, who many believe could contend for the Lightweight belt in the future. His only losses have come against Mateusz Gamrot and Islam Makhachev. A key for us in this fight is Dariush’s 80% takedown defense. Beneil has some of the best grappling credentials in the entire UFC. We will take a half unit flier on the high level underdog Beneil Dariush to win.

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