For anyone who values strong line movement, this is an interesting situation. Negumereanu opened up as a (+145) underdog back on July 19th. By July 25th, he had been bought down to (+125). On July 27th he fell to (+110), and now on fight day Negumereanu is sitting as a (-120) favorite. It's hard to ignore this type of line movement, but it's also dangerous to follow the steam now that the value looks to be gone. For us, we believe Negumereanu will have a big grappling edge. For that reason in addition to this sharp dog to favorite line move, we will roll with a one unit bet on Nicolae Negumereanu.

Matthew Semelsberger has had an impressive start to his UFC career. Since joining the UFC in August 2020, he's 4-1 with his only loss coming via decision to Khaos Williams. Semelsberger comes from a unique football background. He played safety in college for Marist and was 2nd team All PFL prior to transitioning to MMA. Alex Morono looks to be solid everywhere, but not necessarily elite anywhere. We believe Matthew Semelsberger will have both a grappling and striking advantage. Our bet is one unit on the former football player to win the fight.

It would have been ideal to place this wager earlier in the week. This line has steamed toward Alexandre Pantoja over the last 48 hours. We are getting a tough price, but Pantoja has looked the part of a potential future champion in this flyweight division. He's never been finished, and he's fought many of the top dogs in the division. Our concern with Alex Perez is that he hasn't fought since November 2020. He's approaching a 2 year layoff, so it's difficult to forecast what to expect from Perez. He's a talented fighter with a lot of highlights throughout his career, but he's also been finished in 2 of his last 5 fights. Our bet is on Pantoja to win the fight, and an additional quarter unit sprinkle on a submission at (+350).

This is our flyer bet of the night. Hamdy Abdelwahab is a bit of an unknown on this card. He's 5-0 in his professional career, with 4 first round knockouts. At (+800), we absolutely love this value. This same prop is (+600) at DraftKings, so be sure to head to FanDuel for a significantly better number. Our bet is a quarter unit.