Jailton Almeida has fought 5 times in a UFC octagon (including his Contender Series fight). He’s finished all 5 fights within the first 2 rounds (3 submissions, 2 knockouts). Jairzinho Rozenstruik is coming off of a knockout win against Chris Daukaus. He had lost two straight prior to that (Alexander Volkov & Curtis Blaydes). Rozenstruik has fought the far better competition, these odds look to be a bit inflated toward Almeida’s side. While Jailton Almeida has looked unstoppable since joining the UFC, he does have 2 professional losses (including being knocked out). Shamil Abdurakhimov landed a few big shots on Almeida in his last fight, but his chin did not look phased. There is no value on the moneyline here, so we turned to the submission or knockout props. Even though Rozenstruik has never been submitted, we see the submission as the most likely path to victory. Almeida has a nasty rear naked choke which is responsible for 9 of his 18 career MMA wins. Jailton Almeida by submission is our wager.

It’s important to be aware that Johnny Walker’s last 3 fights have all ended in round 1. In total, 8 out of Johnny Walker’s 10 UFC fights have been decided in round 1. For Anthony Smith, 3 of his last 4 fights have ended in round 1. In Anthony Smith's 18 total UFC bouts, 5 of them (27%) have ended in round 1. However, it’s worth considering that Anthony Smith hasn’t lost a fight in round 1 since 2013. Johnny Walker’s only round 1 losses were against current light heavyweight champion Jahmal Hill, and Bellator contender Corey Anderson (back in 2019). This (-122) price is a discrepancy in the market. Most books have the fight to start round 2 priced around (-150). In order for this ticket to cash we just need 5 minutes without a finish. These bets are always a sweat, especially with high level finishers on both sides. If you tail this one, get ready for a long 5 minutes. Our wager is a half unit.

Carlos Ulberg is coming off of back to back first round knockouts. His last knockout was against Nicolae Negumereanu, who was on an impressive 4 fight win streak. For those who value MMA math, these two share similar opponent in Nicolae Nugumereanu. Ihor Potieria got knocked out by Nicolae Nugumereanu, and Carlos Ulberg knocked out Nicolae Nurgumereanu. Throughout Ihor Potieria's 22 professional MMA fights, he's been knocked out twice. Potieria is coming off of a knockout win of his own against Shogun Rua. For us this bet comes down to Ulberg’s striking metrics, and Poteria's tendency to take damage. Ulberg averages 8.27 significant strikes landed per minute. Ihor Potieria absorbs an average of over 5 significant strikes per minute! Our wager is on Ulberg to land the big shot, and extend his knockout streak to 3.