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Ricky's Case For Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Win AL MVP
This is a bold take that most would laugh at. Before you laugh your way out of the article, just hear me out on a few quick points. No fluff here, I’ll get right to it.
Let’s start by looking at the statistic that I feel is most telling of a single player's value.
WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
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This statistic measures an individual player's value based on every facet of the game, by determining how many more wins they are worth than a replacement level player. This statistic can be applied to both pitchers and hitters.
Here is a breakdown of the top 5 leaders in WAR at this moment:
- Zack Wheeler WAR = 6.9
- Robbie Ray WAR = 6.9
- Vladimer Guerero Jr. = 6.8
- Marcus Semien = 6.8
- Carlos Correa = 6.7
Here is the link to view the entire list for those interested:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders/_/type/seasonal/year/2021
If you can’t find Shohei Ohtani, it’s because he’s way down the list tied for 39th with a 4.5 WAR.
If you break down where Ohtani ranks individually for pitching and hitting
(for those who say this stat cannot weigh both), he is tied for 24th amongst pitchers with a 3.7 WAR. Offensively, he is tied for 19th with a 4.4 WAR. He is not in the top 10 in either category, nor the one that combines all categories.
Now, some of you will read that and say “Ricky, that’s just one dumb stat, there is a lot more that goes into the MVP award.”
That’s a fair point. Let’s dive deeper into the offensive numbers for both of these players.
Batting Average:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - .321
Shohei Ohtani - .257
Home Runs:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 46
Shohei Ohtani - 44
RBIs:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 105
Shohei Ohtani - 94
Runs:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 119
Shohei Ohtani - 93
Strike Outs:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 103
Shohei Ohtani - 178
Now let’s address the number one argument against Vladdy Jr., which is simply that he doesn’t pitch. Look, you’ve got me here. Shohei Ohtani can bring value in a way that Guerrero Jr. cannot.
Let's take a look at the impressive pitching numbers for Ohtani below.
Shohei Ohtani Pitching Stats:
9-2, 3.28 ERA, 146 Strikeouts, Opposing Hitters Batting .208, WHIP 1.11
I love to give a bold take like I'm taking here on Vladdy Jr., but it would be ignorant for me to say these pitching numbers should be ignored in the MVP consideration. This is where it seems Shohei Ohtani really makes his case as an elite 2 way player, which the game has not seen since Babe Ruth.
The final point I want to discuss is the term MVP (Most Valuable Player). Across all sports, there is always a debate on the true meaning of the award.
For example...
- Do you define “most valuable player” as the player that has the best stats?
- Is it the player that is most valuable to their individual team?
- Or is it the player that took the league by storm?
Out of those 3 consideration points, I will still sit here and say that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be my answer in 2 of those 3 questions.
The stats don't lie, Vladdy Jr. has better numbers. Ohtani has the more diverse numbers. In terms of individual value to their team, the Blue Jays currently hold the final wild card spot in the AL. The Angels are 12 games out of the AL wild card race. The WAR numbers I provided earlier prove that Vladdy Jr. is a direct link to the Blue Jays success. Who took the league by storm this year? No question about that, the answer is Shohei Ohtani.
Remember, this is just a fun take playing devils advocate to the general public opinion. My true argument is that I don't believe the discrepancy on the betting side of this award is justified. (see below)
Shohei Ohtani (-3500)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+750)
To wrap things up, here is a question that I really want you to think about...
If being a 2 way player (pitching & hitting)
is the primary reason that Shohei Ohtani will win the MVP award over someone with better numbers (such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), does that mean he will have a massive advantage with this award each year moving forward?
In other words, if Ohtani puts up solid 2 way numbers each year of his career, how will anyone else ever win this award?
To listen to me debate this live on our morning radio show, simply press play below. The debate is toward the end of the episode around the 32 minute mark.
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