We backed Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo in his first start of the season. In the write up of that game (see HERE), we highlighted Lodolo as a pitcher to keep an eye on heading into this season. Well, the Nick Lodolo secret got out quickly. He has been dominant in first 2 starts. Lodolo has 21 strikeouts in 12 innings this season. He just shut down this Phillies lineup less than a week ago (7 innings, 3 hits, 0 earned runs, 12 strikeouts). However, this is a rare spot where we are going to fade the Reds young lefty. His price tag is a bit too high for us today. Despite the Phillies early struggles, our model suggests they hold the better offense and bullpen in this matchup. We saw this same Bailey Falter vs. Nick Lodolo pitching matchup last week. Outside of one solo home run, Bailey Falter pitched well (4 hits in 5 innings). Falter has yet to walk a hitter through his first 10.1 innings. He looks to have good command early in the season. The books have the run total in this game set at 9. With a decent amount of runs expected to be scored, we will take the plus money with the better offense.

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