Before we dig into the pick itself, let's start by looking at the season win totals for each team in this division (courtesy of FanDuel).

 

We've got the Lions win total set at 5, the Bears win total set at 7.5, and the Vikings at 8.5. The Packers win total is currently set at 10.5, and it is juiced up at (-130) trending toward moving to 11.

 

We are not providing those win totals as an indication that this ticket will cash. We highlight this because it lets us know that the books are valuing the Packers above the rest of the division by roughly 2 to 2.5 games. At SteadyPicks, we ran numerous simulations with all kinds of different variables for each team. The average of all of our simulations displayed the Packers with a 2.9 win discrepancy over the rest of the division.

 

We also have concerns about each team in this division, other than the Packers. The Bears QB situation and honestly their entire offense outside of Allen Robinson and David Montgomery is questionable. For the Vikings, their defense and lack of depth at QB concerns us. Kirk Cousins (who is unvaccinated) will be tested for COVID every single day rather than once per week. This leaves him with a significantly higher chance of missing games due to the NFL's virus protocols. Lastly for the Lions, there's not much to say. This could be a team that is either really bad, or they could surprise the league and be better than expected. Either way, they are not a legitimate contender to the Packers in this division.