We are taking a swing on the underdog in this main event. Many bettors will see Amanda Nunes fighting this weekend, and will blindly back her due to the name value. Irene Aldana is relatively unknown to those who are not big MMA fans. That being said, Aldana is a very interesting opponent for Nunes. In 20 professional fights, Irene Aldana has 11 finishes (8 knockouts, 3 submissions). Her last 3 wins in the UFC have all come by knockout (Macy Chiasson, Yana Santos, Ketlen Vieira). Aldana did suffer a loss by decision to Holly Holm during that 3 fight knockout stretch. In terms of the striking metrics, Aldana averages 5.3 significant strikes per minute compared to 4.4 for Nunes. In the grappling department, Amanda Nunes has the edge. Irene Aldana has 81% takedown defense, but we’ve seen several of her recent opponents able to get her to the ground. In Aldana’s last fight, Macy Chiasson landed 3 takedowns. Holly Holm was able to take her down 5 times on 14 attempts. We fully anticipate there to be moments of this fight where Amanda Nunes is able to get this fight to the mat. Despite anticipating that, we still like Aldana's chances. Our wager here comes down to two key factors. First, the +260 odds imply roughly a 27% win probability for Irene Aldana. While Amanda Nunes is a rightful favorite here given her resume, we believe Aldana’s chances are far greater than 27%. The second factor we considered is the line movement to this point. Several sportsbooks opened this fight with Amanda Nunes odds to win around (-400). Since the line opened, the market has consistently moved toward Irene Aldana. There looks to be a lot of respected money behind the underdog, which is preventing this line from steaming toward Nunes. Keep in mind that a large portion of the handle on this fight has yet to come in. It will be interesting to monitor where this line goes once limits are raised. We are splitting a 1 unit wager up into two separate half unit bets. The first half unit is on Irene Aldana to win at (+260). The second half unit is on Aldana to win by knockout at (+650). We believe the knockout is Aldana's most likely path to a victory if she were to win. Amanda Nunes was knocked out once in strikeforce prior to joining the UFC. She’s been knocked out once in the UFC by Cat Zingano. While Julianna Pena submitted Nunes, it was Pena’s striking that set up that finish. Irene Aldana has far better striking metrics than Julianna Pena. This fight should get very interesting if Aldana can get her hands going. Our risk is 1 unit total.