If you go back in history and look for common themes between National Championship teams, there are two key metrics that jump out. Most championship teams have ranked inside the top 25 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. We believe one of these eight teams will bring home the trophy in March. Check out all of our NCAAB futures bets below.

Keeping the theme of teams that rank inside the top 15 in adjusted offensive & defensive efficiency going, Houston ranks inside the top 10 in both. Houston’s only loss this season came against Alabama. Their most notable wins are against Virginia and Saint Mary’s. These (+700) odds are a bit tough to swallow considering the highly competitive landscape of college basketball this season. However, this Houston defense is big time! It's one of the best defensive groups we’ve seen in years, and we want some stock in this Houston team. We are going with a full unit bet on Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars to win it all. 

This UConn team ranks inside of the top 15 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. This is an ideal time to bet on UConn, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games and the market has reacted. Not too long ago UConn was one of the betting favorites to win it all. We expect Dan Hurley’s team to be a tough out in the big dance regardless of their recent slide. 

Kansas ranks just outside of the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency, they rank 12th defensively. Bill Self has two National Championships under his belt, and has another extremely talented group this season. Kansas has come out on the better side of a lot of close games, but finally dropped one to Kansas State in overtime last night. At (+1200), we see good value.

This UCLA defense ranks toward the top of the nation in nearly every metric. They rank 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency. This program has had a lot of success in the tournament in recent years. UCLA went to the sweet 16 last year, and the final 4 the year prior (where they lost on a buzzer beater against Gonzaga). Mick Cronin will be looking to break through and win his first championship, he’s never made it beyond the final 4. A half unit is our bet on UCLA.

Purdue head coach Matt Painter has done a fantastic job building this program. He’s been at Purdue since 2006, with his best finish being in the elite 8. Matt Painter's teams are always very good on the offensive side of the ball. Since 2018, four of his six teams have ranked inside the top 5 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Purdue is capable of winning a shootout against any team in the country, and their defense is much improved from last season. At (+1500), we will dive in with a half unit bet. 

At (+2500), there is a lot to like about this Virginia team. They don’t rank inside of the top 15 in either of the two key categories we look for, but they are within the top 30 in both. Virginia is one of the few teams that was able to play Houston tough, and they have several impressive wins (Baylor, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina). Tony Bennett has won the big dance before (2019), and this is his most talented group since. A quarter unit bet nets +6.25 units, we locked it in.

For the first time in a few years, the market is a bit down on Gonzaga. The metrics suggest that this is Mark Few’s worst team in the last 7-8 years. This team struggles have come on defense. Last year’s Gonzaga team ranked 10th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, this year's defense ranks 69th in that metric. The reason we are betting on Gonzaga is due to their elite offense. Gonzaga's offense ranks 4th in the nation in adjusted efficiency. This team has won shootouts against Alabama, Xavier, and Kentucky. Gonzaga's only losses have come to Texas, Purdue, and Baylor. Mark Few and this Gonzaga team will have a lot less pressure on them this season. Our bet is a half unit. 

If any of these bets hit, we will turn a profit! Let us know on social media (@SteadyPicks) which teams you would have included on this list.

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