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One Of These Teams Will Win The 2024 NCAA Tournament
We have copy and pasted this paragraph below for three consecutive years. The criteria remains the same in 2024. If anyone is interested in reading last year's article, HERE
is the link.
If you go back in history and look for common themes between National Championship teams, there are two key metrics that jump out. Most championship teams have ranked inside the top 25 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. While the season is still young, we believe one of these eight teams will bring home the trophy in March.
Auburn (+3000)
0.5 Unit Stake To Win 9 Units
January 10th 2024 via Caesars
There is a lot to like about this Auburn team. The Tigers currently rank 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They play fast, rebound well, and are led by an experienced coach in Bruce Pearl. Auburn holds wins over Indiana, USC, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. Their only losses came in their opener against Baylor, and they slipped up on the road in Appalachian State in early December. This looks to be one of the best teams in the SEC. At 30-1 odds, this team is worthy of a half unit wager.
Illinois (+8000)
0.5 Unit Stake To Win 40 Units
January 10th 2024 via Caesars
If you evaluate this bet strictly by the metrics, Illinois is by far the most mispriced team in the futures market. They rank 6th nationally in offensive efficiency, and inside the top 20 in defensive efficiency. Illinois has a lot of experienced upperclassmen. However, there has been some really bad media surrounding this team. One of their top players is currently facing serious criminal allegations, and is not currently with the team. Today this player filed a restraining order against Illinois in an effort to get him reinstated on the team. With or without this player, this (+8000) price is way off.
North Carolina (+3000)
0.5 Unit Stake To Win 15 Units
January 10th 2024 - via Caesars
The North Carolina Tar Heels rank inside the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Head coach, Hubert Davis, has a lot of experience on this team. This includes big man Armando Bacot, who many may remember from North Carolina’s run a couple years back. This team currently checks all the boxes we look for. At 30-1, the price is right on the Tar Heels.
UConn (+1500)
0.5 Unit Stake To Win 7.5 Units
January 10th 2024 via BetMGM
UConn was the prize of our article last season. We snagged them at (+2400) in the midst of a losing streak. Offensively, UConn is a powerhouse again this season (4th ranked offense in the nation). The drop off looks to be on the defensive end of the court. The Huskies currently rank 38th nationally in defensive efficiency. They have struggled to defend the 3 point line, and have not been creating turnovers as well as last season. With that being said, UConn has already played a lot of top tier teams. We expect their defensive rating to improve over the back half of the season. By March, don’t be surprised if this is a top 20 defense. Dan Hurley gained a lot of experience in his Championship season last year. This team is going to be a tough out for any team in the country. A half unit at 15-1 odds is our bet.
Arizona (+1100)
0.5 Unit Stake To Win 5.5 Units
January 10th 2024 via Caesars
Arizona is the only team on this list of bets that ranks top 5 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Wildcats are led by two fantastic guards, and a phenomenal head coach in Tommy Lloyd. This is Lloyd’s best team yet in his three year tenure with the program. The 11-1 odds are short, but for good reason. Get your half unit in before this number drops below 10-1.
Tennessee (+2200)
0.5 Unit Stake To Win 11 Units
January 10th 2024 via Caesars
The Tennessee Volunteers have an elite defense. They rank 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency, 6th in opposing effective FG percentage, and 9th in opposing 2 point percentage. You won’t find many defensive stats where Tennessee is not near the top of the rankings. What excites us most about head coach Rick Barnes' group this season is the step forward they have taken on offense. Last season Tennessee had the #1 defense in the nation, but their offense ranked outside of the top 60. That ranking has improved to 23rd in offensive efficiency. We see strong value here at 22-1.
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