We are making our first player prop bet of the 2023 NFL season, and it comes in the form of Chargers starting QB Justin Herbert. Here are a few factors to consider in regard to how we landed on this wager. 

There are 4 quarterbacks favored ahead of Justin Herbert, including Patrick Mahomes (+650), Joe Burrow (+750), Josh Allen (+750), and Jalen Hurts (+1200). The (+1500) price tag on Herbert implies roughly a 6% probability of him winning this award. Last season Justin Herbert’s preseason MVP odds were at (+900), so we have to ask ourselves what has changed over the course of 1 year that has dropped Herbert in the MVP market?

Looking back at Herbert’s 2022 season, he posted career worst marks in passing touchdowns (25) passer rating (93.2), sacks (38) and QBR (58.2). However, it’s important to note that the Chargers star left tackle Rashawn Slater missed nearly the entire season. The Chargers top two wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both missed significant time. Justin Herbert also dealt with injuries of his own throughout the year, so many factors contributed to the drop-off in production.

Looking ahead at the 2023 season, Herbert will get his left tackle Slater back on his blind side. The Chargers added another talented WR in Quinton Johnson with their 1st round pick. Los Angeles also brought in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who has been very vocal about his desire to let Herbert air it out this season. This team will play 11 games indoors, while the other 4 QB’s favored ahead of Herbert play in cold winter environments. 

Between the weapons around Justin Herbert, his talent and abilities, and the extra boost playing the bulk of his winter games indoors, we see tremendous value at these 15-1 odds, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

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