In this bet we are fading both of these starting pitchers, and riding two very good offenses. Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver has good metrics on the surface. He's 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA. However, we encourage you to dive a little deeper. Smith-Shawver has pitched just 13.1 innings, and holds a 4.48 FIP which is not very good. He pitched once in relief, but has started in his last two appearances. Those two starts were against the Nationals and Rockies. Smith-Shawver is an extremely bright prospect, but this kid is only 20 years old. He can’t even get into a bar! As talented as Smith-Shawver is, imagine pitching against this Phillies lineup in Citizens Bank Park as a 20 year old. We forecast a potential “welcome to the MLB” moment tonight for the Braves rookie. On the Phillies side we have Aaron Nola pitching, who is in the midst of the worst season of his career. His numbers across the board are either at or approaching career worst marks. Nola has allowed a home run in 11 consecutive starts, and he’s allowed 10 earned runs in his last 2 starts. The Braves offense is batting .341 as a team over their last 5 games with 14 home runs! Over their last 13 games, Atlanta is hitting .313 with 30 home runs. This offense is scorching hot right now! Aaron Nola already got hit hard by this lineup back in late May. It's hard to forecast much success for him here. Both of these starters look vulnerable to the opposing team tonight. Our wager is a half unit on 9 or more total runs to be scored.

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