A few notes to consider prior to betting this game. Let’s start by looking at the line movement. After game one, the sportsbooks opened the game two spread between 6 and 6.5. The +6.5’s and +6’s were unanimously wiped off the board in the opening hours. Up to this point today (3:22pm EST), those 6’s have yet to reappear. So while there looks to be a sharp buy on the Lakers at +6 or better, it will be interesting to monitor whether or not those 6’s reappear before tipoff. Dating back to the last three years of the Conference Finals, the losing team has covered the spread at a 75% clip in the following game (22-7). That’s a tough trend to fade, and the market seems to be correlating with that trend. However, our model has the Nuggets winning this game by north of 6 points. We referenced our numbers to several other respected NBA data sources, and the vast majority of them also signal value on the Nuggets. The Lakers shot well above their season averages in game one. It would be surprising to see them hit that same level of production in back to back road games. The Nuggets also shot above their averages in game one. However, Denver has the most efficient offense in the NBA. A repeat performance on their home floor (where the Nuggets are 41-7 this season/postseason) would not be as unordinary. This Lakers roster has changed a lot throughout the season, and they have a head coach (Darvin Ham) in his first year with the team. This Nuggets group has been together for several years, they have tremendous team chemistry. Denver leaned on their balanced roster to eliminate a star powered Suns team that also had little time to gel. We are going with a small bet here, and laying the 5 points with the Nuggets.

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