The Saints have not been getting pressure on the QB (bottom 10 in the league in pass rush). The Saints have also been struggling in pass coverage, which is an area that they have been strong over the last few seasons. Simply put, this is a favorable matchup for Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense. The Bengals defense has been pretty good as well, we have them ranked just outside the top 10. We will lay the 2.5 points with the Bengals for one unit.

Offensively, the Jaguars have a slight edge by the numbers. Defensively, the Colts are a bit better. Our bet comes down to the quarterbacks, and the injuries on the Colts side. Matt Ryan has regressed, and Trevor Lawerence has improved from last season. The Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor (and Hines), Shaq Leonard, and Kwity Paye. The Jaguars have struggled in Indy historically, but this is a good spot to right the ship today. Our bet is one unit on the road dogs to win this game behind their QB.

For us, this game comes down to a few factors. First, the Bills have an edge on the defensive side of the ball. This Bills team has an elite pass rush, and they are great in pass coverage. The Bills have the necessary personnel on defense to make Tyreek Hill's absence felt tonight. Josh Allen torched the Chiefs in both matchups against them last season. The Bills won 38-20 in Kansas City last regular season. We all remember the shootout between these teams last postseason that essentially came down to a coin toss. From a betting standpoint, the Chiefs have become a trendy dog today. There is a ton of media circulating around regarding Patrick Mahomes never losing as an underdog, and this being his first time as a home dog. Those trends don't carry much weight for us against this talented Bills team. We are going to take the points out of the mix here and roll with the Bills on the moneyline for one unit.

The Eagles will have all of their starters available for this game on both sides of the ball. This is big news, as the Eagles offensive line had a variety of question marks heading into the week. The Cowboys defense (and specifically their pass rush) has been the strength of the team. However, the Eagles have the #1 pass blocking offense according to PFF. The Cowboys have not had to play from behind much with Cooper Rush, so we have not seen him have to throw his way back into a game. We will look for the Eagles to pull ahead at some point, and put Cooper Rush in a position where he needs to throw the ball. Our bet is a half unit on the Eagles to both win and cover the spread.

This feels like the trap game of the week, but we are going to go ahead and dive into the trap. The Dolphins will be playing with a 3rd string, 7th round rookie QB. While the biggest vulnerability on this Vikings team is in pass coverage, we aren't so confident that Skylar Thompson is going to be able to exploit that. On the offensive side of the ball, the Vikings have been one of the best and most well rounded offenses in football. Defensively, they are good against the run and have a solid pass rush. The only reason this play is a half unit is because the line movement and money splits are very suspicious. Either way, we feel comfortable with a half unit bet on the Vikings to win by more than a field goal.

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