This line moved from -9.5 to -6.5 after the Eagles ugly loss to the Commanders on Monday Night Football. Simply put, we feel a 3 point line move is a bit of an overreaction to that game. The Eagles shot themselves in the foot over and over with turnovers and penalties, yet they still had an opportunity to win it late. If the Eagles can rebound with a clean performance today, we like their odds to win this matchup by north of a touchdown. We will lay it with the Eagles, our stake is 1 unit.

This is a matchup where we can't ignore the history books. The New England Patriots have won 13 straight games against the Jets. Take that stat with a grain of salt, because this 2022 season is by far the most competitive these two teams have been during that run. We would even argue that the Jets are a better overall team this year, and they have the better record to back it up. That being said, having the better team didn't matter in week 8. The Jets lost to the Patriots despite gaining over 100 yards more of total offense. The X factor here that swings us over to the Patriots is Jets QB Zach Wilson. According to PFF, nearly 5.5% of Zach Wilson's passing attempts are turnover worthy throws. When going into Gillette stadium to face a Bill Belichick defense, you can't beat yourself and turn the ball over. That is exactly what Zach Wilson has done in these matchups. For that reason, until these Jets prove they can get over this hurdle, we will continue to side with the Pats. DraftKings currently has a much better moneyline number than the rest of the market. We opted to grab that rather than laying the 3.5 points.

For this bet, we are going to side with a much better defense in the Commanders. The Texans have a bottom 3 defense in the NFL this season. They have been a complete liability against the run and the pass. This Texans defense also fails to get pressure on opposing QB's. The Commanders are efficient in all of those defensive categories. These two offenses are neck and neck in terms of production. The Commanders rushing attack and passing attack looks to be more effective under Taylor Heinicke than it was early in the season behind Carson Wentz. The Texans will be without their top 5 draft pick from 2022 Derek Stingley Jr. The Commanders did not activate their star pass rusher Chase Young for this game. Our numbers suggest this spread should be 3.5 or 4 in favor of Washington, so we are going to play it at -3. Our wager is 1 unit only.

Typically we would lay the 1.5 points at (-110) juice here. However, SteadyPicks members have had some really tough loses over the last few days. Several of our college football and college basketball plays have come down to as little as a half point. For the sake of avoiding another heartbreaker (if this were to be decided by 1), let's grab the moneyline. The Vikings are a trendy dog today. The public has gravitated toward getting points with an 8-1 team. That said, this game has a lot of sharp and respected money on the Cowboys side. The tickets are pretty split in terms of the spread and moneyline, yet nearly 75% of the money is behind the Cowboys. This is one of those situations where the smaller public bets are coming in on the Vikings, but the large tickets are coming in on Dallas. In terms of the matchup, we've got the Cowboys ranked slightly higher on both sides of the ball. The Vikings have played a ton of close one possession games, and they keep finding themselves on the better side. Last week they had an emotional win in Buffalo, whereas the Cowboys let one slip to the Packers. We will side with who our numbers suggest is the better overall team. The Cowboys certainly need this win more. The Vikings are running away with the NFC North. This is a huge game for Dallas, our bet is 1 unit on the moneyline.

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