Most NBA bettors are familiar with the playoff trend of the team who wins the game typically covering the spread as well. Since the 2019/2020 playoffs, the team that wins is 270-28-5 against the spread. That’s over a 90% cover rate for the winning team! However, it’s worth considering that about 20% of the losses against that trend come in these 3-1 spots. This has been the most common playoff spot for the team who does not win the game to cover the spread. As always, take this trend and all trends with a grain of salt. Each individual game and matchup is unique, and should be evaluated as such. We use these trends as nothing more than a guideline or reference. That being said, the spreads in these two games below look to be a bit inflated in comparison to our model. 

The Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George again tonight. Outside of missing postseason action, those two each missed almost 20% of the regular season games. The Clippers are no strangers to playing without their superstars. Winning on the road in the NBA is tough, very few teams finish with a winning road record. The Clippers are one of just two teams in the Western Conference that holds a winning record on the road (the other is the Kings). The largest margin of victory throughout the first 4 games has been just 14 points. Each of the games has been competitive. Unless the Clippers players decide to pack it in and give minimal effort (which we can’t quantify motivation), there is no reason to forecast a blowout here. We expect Clippers head coach Ty Lue to have his team motivated and ready to go out swinging.

The Hawks will be without Dejuonte Murray, who is suspended for an altercation with a referee. That said, the Hawks offense has performed well without Murray this season. We aren't so convinced his absence is worth 3 to 3.5 points. Over the last 11 meetings between these two teams, only one of them was decided by more than 13 points. We expect the Celtics to win, but are hopeful the Hawks can hang within 13 points and cover. Our stake is a half unit.

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