We are in the fourth round of the In-Season Tournament. This play won’t be a popular one, with two teams who have been cashing overs left and right. The Pacers have gone over in 9 straight games. The Hawks have gone over in 3 straight. Indiana plays at the fastest pace in the league, with Atlanta ranking within the top 3 in pace. These offenses both rank top 5 in efficiency, and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. Despite all of these reasons why this should be a high scoring game, 252.5 is simply too many points. In the Hawks’ last 10 outings, there has only been 1 game with a total score over 250. While the Pacers offense continues to perform at a high level, we still anticipate regression from this group as the season progresses. Scoring regression is always more likely to occur on the road. For the sake of our wager, we hope the Pacers offense regresses tonight.

The 76ers have gone over this 218.5 mark in each of their last five games. These teams hit their overs at 61 and 54 percent respectively, and average a total of 230 points in games they play. The Sixers rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, but their defense is right around the league average. Cleveland ranks middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Both teams play around the league average in terms of pace. Donovan Mitchell is out for the Cavs, but they scored 121 against Denver without him on Sunday. We like our chances of over 218.5 being scored. Our stake is a half unit on the over.