We are keying in exclusively on the first 5 innings of this game. This will be the most favorable pitching matchup of the series for Philadelphia. At the time of this writing the Braves are expected to start either Bryce Elder or AJ Smith-Shawver. Both of those options are less ideal options than Phillies starter Aaron Nola. The Braves have faced Nola 3 times in 2023, and haven’t handed him a loss in any of them. Nola has a 3.50 ERA in 18 innings against Atlanta this season. It’s also worth noting that Nola has pitched much better at home in Citizen Bank Park. He holds a 3.29 ERA in Philly compared to a 5.43 ERA outside of Philadelphia. Nola pitched 7 scoreless innings in the Wild Card round and looked very sharp. Our wager is a half unit on the Phillies first 5 innings moneyline. Make sure you place this wager in the 2-way first 5 innings market. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this ticket would push or be voided.

In this bet we are essentially fading both starting pitchers, and backing two good offenses. The Dodgers will start Lance Lynn tonight with their season on the line. Lynn has allowed 12 home runs in his last 7 starts. The Dodgers have won the last 4 games Lynn has started, but the metrics aren’t pretty. Arizona will start rookie Brandon Pfaadt who is 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA against the Dodgers this season. With both offenses capable of piling on runs, we feel comfortable laying some juice on over 4.5 runs to be scored through the first 5 innings of this game. Both bullpens have been pitching well down the stretch. We will eliminate the later innings from our wager.

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