We like the pitching advantage for the Twins in this game 3 matchup. Twins starting pitcher Sonny Gray holds a 2.67 ERA in 97.2 innings pitched at home. Gray faced the Astros twice this season and posted a 2.77 ERA in his 13 innings against Houston. Astros starter Cristian Javier has struggled pitching on the road. He has a 5.17 ERA away from Houston (94 innings). The Twins bullpen has posted better metrics than Houston down the stretch of the season. The Astros have the more experienced group, and the more explosive offense. We are going to side with the Twins pitching advantage over the Astros offense and experience. Twins on the moneyline is our wager.

The Orioles season is on the line today in Texas. The Rangers are 4-0 to begin the postseason. Texas will start Nathan Eovaldi, who pitched very well in the Wild Card round. It’s worth considering that Eovaldi has a 9.30 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his last 6 starts (20.1 innings). Orioles starter Dean Kremer has pitched better on the road than he has at home in 2023. Kremer is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA in his last 5 starts. The Orioles have the better bullpen in this matchup. Baltimore should have the edge in the later innings if this game is close. The Orioles are 33-22 as road underdogs. This has been a highly profitable spot for this team. Our biggest concern with Baltimore is that they are a young group that lacks postseason experience. Despite that, we are comfortable backing them. Our wager is a half unit on the Orioles moneyline.

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