Thanksgiving has not been kind to the Detroit Lions in recent years. The Lions have lost 5 consecutive Thanksgiving games, and things won't get easier this year against a dangerous Buffalo Bills team. The Lions bring a rare 3 game win streak into this game. The Bills bounced back with a win last week after dropping two straight (Jets & Vikings). In terms of this matchup, it's worth noting that the Bills have done a lot of traveling over the last 10 days. They dealt with a crazy snow storm in Buffalo last week that caused the NFL to relocate their game against the Browns (to Detroit). The Bills then went back to Buffalo, and then flipped right back around to Detroit on this short week. Those factors play a very small factor in our wager, but we do feel they are important to know. 

The two metrics that pushed our bet toward the Lions are the Bills run defense and tackling grades. According to PFF, the Bills are a bottom 5 tackling defense in the NFL. They also rank bottom 7 in run defense. The Lions have a fantastic offensive line and a strong rushing attack. In addition, the Lions have not lost any game at home this season by more than 4 points. That includes games against the Eagles, Dolphins, Seahawks, Packers, and Commanders. We expect the Lions to fight, and to find a way to stay within the number. Bills mafia took over Detroit last week, but the Lions fan base always shows up on Thanksgiving! Give us the home underdogs with the 10 points. Out bet is 1 unit.

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