If you look at the trends, this seems like a good spot to back the home team that is down 0-2 in the series. Since 2003, home favorites who are down 0-2 in the Conference Finals are covering the spread at a 69% clip (45-20). This is a hard trend to ignore. Especially when you consider that the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 both straight up and against the spread at home this postseason. The public narrative is that this is a “must win” game for the Lakers. So with all of that being said, there are many reasons why the majority of bettors will be on the Lakers tonight. However, the problem we have is that this 6 point spread does not align with our model. The beauty of SteadyPicks is that we stick to our process, and do not let outside narratives impact our wager. We trust our numbers, and live or die with the result. It’s worth considering that this Denver team has not been blown out once this postseason. Their largest margin road loss was 7 points to Phoenix, and Denver won a road game in each of their first two series. The Nuggets overall net rating this postseason is by far the best amongst all qualifying playoff teams (8.0). The Lakers net rating sits at 3.7. Getting 6 points with the better overall team is a spot we can live with the result on regardless of which way it goes. Given that we are fading some significant trends, we limit our wager to a half unit. 

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