This is one of those rare scenarios where nearly every data source we looked at suggests the wrong team is favored. The SteadyPicks model projects FAU winning this game by 2 points, KenPom forecasts a 1 point win for FAU. Some other popular models project FAU to win this game by nearly 5-7 points. We love to see data align across the resources we respect. However, it’s no secret that the bookmakers are also aware of these public models that bettors like to use (such as KenPom). The bookmakers see these numbers way off from their lines, yet have opted not to adjust it. We see two possible reasons why this would occur. The first reason would be if the “sharper” and more respected wagers are hitting Kansas State and holding the spread there. The second (and more likely) reason would be if the public money is coming in heavily on Kansas State even at this inflated number, so there is no need to adjust it. Keep in mind this is all speculation, but it's fair to question if maybe the liability on FAU with the larger respected wagers, will be far offset by the heavy public money on K-State. The ticket splits favor Kansas State heavily, so make of that what you will. In terms of this matchup stylistically, consider this. FAU ranks higher in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, rebounding, three point percentage, and two point percentage. Defensively, these teams rank extremely close to one another. Kansas State ranks 27th in defensive efficiency compared to FAU’s 29th ranking. FAU has the better defensive rebounding metrics, and the better numbers defending inside the perimeter. We hate to root against a good story, which this Kansas State team certainly is. Between the hometown narrative with Markquis Nowell playing in NYC, the heart warming comeback story of Keyontae Johnson, and all the viral social media clips of their coach and locker room. It’s a good story, but the numbers are the numbers, and that is what we put our money behind. Our wager is a half unit on FAU +2.

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