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Breaking Down The Jacksonville Jaguars Season Win Total
The Jaguars went on an impressive run down the stretch of the NFL regular season and playoffs. After their week 11 bye week, the Jags proceeded to finish out the year with a 7-2 record. In addition, there’s a lot of question marks in the AFC South division. The Colts, Texans, and Titans all have major question marks at the QB position. It's fair to question if each of the teams in the AFC South minus the Jags are trending toward a rebuild. In theory, that should make the path for the Jags an easy one right? 

Well, when you dive a little deeper, we actually see a tough road ahead for Jacksonville in terms of hitting the 11 win mark. Starting with their division, the Titans and Colts had a down season in 2022. However, both have a lot of talent on defense, a strong running game, and both were playoff caliber teams just a year prior. The Titans were the #1 seed in the AFC in 2021 with a similar roster to what they have now. In 2022, the Titans and Colts suffered from poor QB play and key injuries which contributed to the regression. That said, both teams are in prime position to fix that problem in the coming months through the NFL Draft, or an alternative such as Lamar Jackson. With a productive QB, neither the Colts or Titans look to be an easy win. Moving to the Texans, people forget that this organization has been loading up with high draft picks and young talent. Houston will likely find their franchise QB in the NFL Draft, which should give this team a major boost offensively. 

Outside of the AFC South division, here are the opponents the Jaguars will face in 2023. 49ers, Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, Browns, Bills, Steelers, Bucs, Saints, Falcons, Panthers.

Our final note to consider is the offseason additions and losses for the Jags. Most notably, the Jaguars lost their star offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor. He received an 80 million dollar contract from the Chiefs to help protect Patrick Mahomes. Jacksonville has not been aggressive in free agency to this point. We’d argue that if QB Trevor Lawerence doesn’t take another big step forward, this team could be positioned to go backwards in 2023. All of that being said, we like the value on the Jags to win under 10.5 games.

Our Bet: Jaguars Under 10.5 Regular Season Wins (-140) via DraftKings
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