I want to begin this article with a question for the UFC/MMA people out there...

Have you ever been watching the fights with your buddies, and someone says something along the lines of… “Wow a lot of underdogs win in this sport, we should just bet every dog on the card and we will make money”. Even if it’s not in those exact words, most MMA fans are familiar with that comment.

In this article, we will look at the profitability of betting all underdogs over the last 5 UFC events. On the flip side of that, we will also display the profitability of betting all favorites on each card.

4 Dogs Cashed: Hughes (+145), Hooper (+155), Medic (+130), Vieira (+210)

7 Favorites Cashed: Martinez (-220), Holmes (-195), Almeida (-625), Ricci (-120), Park (-220), Njokuani (-230), Pereira (-135)

Total Profit/Loss With $100 Bet On All Underdogs: -$60.00 or -0.6 Units

Total Profit/Loss With $100 Bet On All Favorites: -$43.00 or -0.43 Units

5 Dogs Cashed: Petroski (+300), Araujo (+100), Nascimento (+190), Spann (+180), Blachowicz (+155)

6 Favorites Cashed: Taira (-260), Jandiroba (-180), Johnson (-135), Torres (-135), Chookagian (-170), Grant (-320)

5 Dogs Cashed: Newson (+120), Vergara (+280), Chiasson (+180), Brown (+100), Esparza (+185)

9 Favorites Cashed: Godinez (-190), Cortez (-140), Fialho (-450), Ivanov (-150), Royval (-275), Trinaldo (-110), St. Preux (-250), Chandler (-400), Oliveira (-140)

4 Dogs Cashed: Young (+150), Figueiredo (+105), Brito (+200), Vera (+110)

7 Favorites Cashed: Levy (-200), Green (-135), Romanov (-2000), Jotko (-170), Elkins (-175), Dawson (-180), Arlovski (-150)

3 Dogs Cashed: Jackson (+700), Lins (+105), Parsons (+135)

8 Favorites Cashed: Qileng (-220), Pedro (-500), Khandozhko (-120), Barriault (-200), Jourdain (-120), Barber (-190), Puelles (-115), Andrade (-170)

It’s important to consider that this is only a 5 event sample size. If you look at this data over the course of a year, 5 years, 10 years, etc., it is always subject to change. 

If you examine these profit/loss margins based on 5 fights, you’ll notice that just one of the 5 cards was profitable for an “all favorites” bettor. The overall profit/loss on betting all favorites on all 5 cards was -$87.00. 

For the underdog theory, we weren't able to rule it out with this small 5 event sample size. If you bet on all underdogs on all 5 cards, your total profit/loss was +$235.00. However, it's worth considering that if Mike Jackson (who was the biggest dog that cashed over the 5 cards at +700) did not win via a disqualification, then the underdog total profit/loss would be negative.

If you are interested in seeing what a larger sample size would look like with this theory, send us a message on Instagram or Twitter and let us know.

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