Illinois +3 (-109)
We’ve been keeping a close eye on this Illinois group all season. This program did everything they could to set themselves up for a March Madness run. They utilized the transfer portal to bring in several key players, some may remember transfer Matthew Mayer from his championship run at Baylor. It's worth noting, Illinois doesn’t carry good momentum coming into the tournament. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games. That said, Illinois defense ranks inside the top 35 in adjusted efficiency, and they rank inside the top 20 at defending inside the perimeter. Illinois offense has shown flashes of being very good, but their offense has been inconsistent. The talent is there, it's just a matter of if that talent will play to their ability. Arkansas grades out slightly higher on both sides of the ball in terms of the adjusted metrics. However, the metrics are close enough that we can’t pass up getting 3 points with the underdogs. Stylistically speaking, these teams are very similar. Both teams play fast, both are poor three point shooting teams, and both rely on their defense to win games. We expect a tough defensive game inside the perimeter for the bulk of this one. Our wager is one unit on the underdogs to stay within 3 points.
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