We have an exciting game 4 on the menu tonight in South Beach. The Nuggets have regained home court advantage in this series with their game 3 win (109-94). A few takeaways to consider from game 3. Denver’s offense had another efficient night. The Nuggets shot 51% overall from the floor, compared to 37% for the Heat offense. Denver only took 18 three point shots in game 3 (hit 5 of them). This was interesting because the Nuggets shot 28 three pointers in game 2, and 27 three’s in game 1. It's important to remember that the Heat played the Celtics in the last round, who take more three point shots than any team in the NBA. Miami's defense has been focused on defending the perimeter for their last 10 games. Nuggets coach Michael Malone did a great job throwing the Heat defense off balance by attacking primarily inside of the perimeter. However, now that Miami coach Erik Spoelstra has had two days to sit on this, will Malone go back to a higher volume of three point shots? It's an interesting chess match taking place between these head coaches. The Heat offense put up 35 three point shots in game 3, knocking down 11 of them (31%). Miami has averaged shooting about 39% from three point range this postseason, which leads all postseason teams. We have seen this Heat offense hit three point shots at a 40-50% clip this postseason (48.6% in game 2). There is a lot of room for offensive progression here in game 4 for Miami. We anticipate improvements both inside and outside of the perimeter. It's also worth noting that the Nuggets won the rebounding margin 58-33 in game 3! The rebounding metrics were much closer in games 1 & 2. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has been very good at making key adjustments from game to game. We expect that trend to continue tonight. Our wager is 1 unit on the Heat +3.5.

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