Here are a few interesting notes to consider in this play-in tournament matchup. The Hawks played two games in Miami back in early March. Both teams had their key players in the lineup. The spreads on those games closed at Hawks +3, and Hawks +2.5. Now slightly over a month later, with nearly the exact same rosters, the spread on the Hawks sits at +5 tonight. In terms of the results in those two earlier Miami matchups, the Heat won by 8 points and 2 points. It’s worth considering how bad the Heat have been from a betting perspective this season. The Heat are 14-27 against the spread at home in Miami, and 19-40 as a betting favorite. When the Heat have been a home favorite, they are 11-25 against the spread. Despite being the worst betting team in the league in terms of performance against the spread, the Heat continue to catch a high volume of public bets. Jimmy Butler is playing well, and the Heat are the healthiest they have been all season. That said, our model suggests this spread should be closer to where it was in the previous two matchups in South Beach. We will take the 5 points with the road dogs.

All picks are available 100% free! Simply head to the "Sign Up" page and join the SteadyPicks team.