This is an interesting sweet 16 matchup between two very different playstyles. Starting with Tennessee, the Volunteers have the #1 adjusted defensive efficiency rating in the nation. In addition, they defend the perimeter better than any team in the country. So defensively speaking, this Tennessee team is fantastic. On the offensive side of the ball, Tennessee has been vulnerable. They rank 196th in effective field goal percentage, 200th in turnover percentage, and are a poor three point shooting team. The strength of Tennessee’s offense is rebounding and 2nd chance opportunities, which often makes up for their other offensive flaws. FAU ranks inside the top 100 in nearly every rebounding metric, and they rank inside the top 50 in defensive rebounding. The FAU Owls are one of the most balanced teams in this tournament. They rank inside the top 35 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. FAU does shoot a lot of three point shots, roughly 37% of their points come from beyond the arc. This is worth noting considering Tennessee defends the perimeter extremely well. That said, FAU also has impressive offensive metrics inside the perimeter. The Owls ranks inside the top 50 nationally in 2 point percentage, and 25th in effective field goal percentage. Our model suggests this spread should be closer to Tennessee -4. So while the edge is razor thin, we do see some value on the FAU side. These heavily bet sweet 16 games are similar to betting the NFL & NBA playoffs. Value is hard to come by, these lines are extremely sharp. We are going to take the +5.5 points with the more consistent offense, and hope for an exciting and competitive game.

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