These odds are a bit surprising for us. The Diamondbacks have a rookie starting pitcher on the mound today in Brandon Pfaadt. While Pfaadt is one of the bright young pitching prospects in baseball, there are a few metrics that concern us in this matchup against Philadelphia. In his Wild Card round start against the Brewers, Pfaadt lasted just 2.2 innings before being pulled. He was on a short leash. In Pfaadt’s Divisional round start against the Dodgers, he pitched well but again was on a short leash and went just 4.1 innings. Pfaadt went 2-5 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 46 innings pitched in Arizona this season. Those are not metrics we are rushing to put our money behind, especially with a 25 year old rookie on a big national stage. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been on a similar short leash, but delivered the Phillies 2 strong outings against the Braves in the Divisional round. Suarez is a lefty, and the Diamondbacks did not hit lefties well throughout the regular season. They ranked bottom 10 in the MLB in OPS versus left handed pitching (.711). Ranger Suarez has pitched significantly better on the road this season. He held a 2.75 road ERA versus a 5.45 ERA at home. The Phillies look to have a big offensive edge, a more experienced starting pitcher, and the better bullpen. Our wager is on the Phillies moneyline.

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