Our numbers have this game capped out as a true pick em. The Pac-12 Conference has a wild day ahead today. If USC wins this game, they will clinch a spot in the Pac-12 championship. If UCLA wins, all heads will be turning to the Oregon vs. Utah game at 10:30pm tonight to help sort this out. Essentially we have USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah fighting for 2 spots. Technically, Washington is still in the mix as well. In terms of this matchup, both of these defenses grade just outside of the top 50. Neither unit is particularly good on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, both of these teams have top 15 offenses in the nation. Both QB's are capable of lighting up the scoreboard (the over/under on this game is 76.5). For us, this bet comes down to getting 2.5 points with the home team in what looks to be a true 50-50 matchup.

This Clemson team has not blown out anyone since early October. That being said, this is a spot where we expect them to roll. Miami has been a roller coaster this season with extreme highs and lows. Miami beat Georgia Tech handily as an underdog last week, but they were blown out (45-3) by Florida State in the game prior. Clemson will look to make a statement here and get back into the conversation of the elite teams in the nation. Miami's defense ranks in the top 25 in several key metrics. However, their tackling numbers are extremely alarming. Miami has struggled with blown tackles, they rank bottom 15 in the nation. This is what has led to this team being blown out on multiple occasions. Clemson is loaded with playmakers on offense who are tough to bring down. It's a bad matchup for a poor tackling team. Our bet is a half unit on Clemson to win this one by a significant margin.

Before making this bet, it's important to know that TCU is expected to be a heavy public bet this week. The early action is showing roughly 70-85% of tickets coming in on the TCU spread and moneyline. Typically, we don't like to be on the public side of these heavily bet games. However, our goal here is to try to get in front of this number before it moves. We backed TCU last week against Texas. Despite TCU being a heavy public bet, they won the game outright as a 7 point underdog. On the flip side, Baylor lost 31-3 at home to Kansas State last weekend. Baylor had a promising defense just a few weeks ago, but that defense has taken a significant turn for the worst. TCU has two regular season games remaining to complete their undefeated season. They have this game at Baylor, and then a home game against a very tough Iowa State defense. With the current betting spread at -2.5, it seems like the books are calling for this to be the upset spot for TCU. It will be very interesting to monitor this line throughout the rest of the week. If this line moves to or through the key number of 3 by Saturday, we will feel great about this ticket. If this line closes at -2.5 or moves in Baylor's direction, it would signal a pretty sharp reverse line movement on the public money. We recommend monitoring this line very closely, but our goal is to beat the 3 by betting this early. In terms of the matchup, our numbers suggest Baylor still has the edge on defense. TCU has the edge on offense. TCU has the more impressive wins, and a lot more to play for in this game. Our stake is one unit for now.

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