We are backing the home dogs in the ACC matchup. Boston College played very good basketball in the month of December. They went 4-1 with a win over St. John’s. Their one loss in the month was in overtime against N.C. State. Wake Forest is on a 7 game win streak, but all 7 of those games were played at home. This will be Wake Forest’s first true road game since November 10th. Boston College grades out slightly below Wake Forest on both sides of the ball, but the margin is thin. This looks to be the best team that Boston College coach Earl Grant has had in his 3 year tenure. Our wager is on Boston College +2.

Many bettors will prefer not to lay this (-165) juice, but we are going to do it. This moneyline price implies roughly a 62% probability of Colorado State winning the game. Based on our model, Colorado State should be closer to a (-190) moneyline price. This implies roughly a 3.5% edge. New Mexico State is a very good defensive team. The metrics suggest that New Mexico State will have the edge in that regard. However, we see a large discrepancy between these two offenses. Colorado State ranks 11th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. They rank 3rd in effective field goal percentage. The Colorado State Rams are a smooth and efficient offense, led by 4 seniors and an experienced coach. According to KenPom, COlorado State’s home court is valued at roughly 3.5 points. This would suggest that this game would be a pick 'em’ on a neutral court. Colorado State on the moneyline is our wager.