These two teams met earlier this season back on November 13th in Kansas City. The Chiefs won the game 27-17, and here are a couple key takeaways from a betting perspective. First, the spread in that game closed Chiefs -9.5. The Jags were 3-6 heading into that game, coming off of a big comeback win against the Raiders. The Chiefs were 6-2, but nearly lost to the Titans as a 14 point favorite the week prior. Here’s the interesting part about how the game played out. Trevor Lawerence played well with over 250 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, and no interceptions. The Jaguars won the time of possession battle, and did not have any turnovers in that game. Those are two key points to consider for a moment. Many believe the best way to beat the Chiefs is by keeping Patrick Mahomes off of the field as much as possible (winning time of possession), and to avoid turning the ball over. The Jaguars did both, and still lost by 10. Their defense even forced 3 turnovers (1 INT, 2 Fumbles), and yet despite that, the Chiefs offense rolled. The Jags actually opened that game up with an onside kick and recovered it, so again, another bonus possession for the Jags. The Chiefs went 7/10 on 3rd down conversions, and only punted twice the entire game. So for us, it’s very clear that this game will come down to the Jaguars defense. Fading #1 seeds coming off of the bye week has been a highly profitable spot to bet blindly. Since 2003, following that trend has had about a 66% win rate. Another strong divisional round trend is backing teams that missed the playoffs last season (which the Jags did), which has a 68% win rate since 2003. One final divisional round trend for anyone who’s feeling crazy, backing underdogs outright on the moneyline that are between +7 and +11 have brought back a massive 60.8% ROI. We aren’t going to take the moneyline, but the math behind this trend suggests there is about a 60% chance that either the Chiefs or Eagles will lose outright today. As always, take trends with a grain of salt as every matchup is unique, but the history speaks loudly. We will take the +9.5 points with the Jaguars, and we caution everyone from putting in teasers or parlays with the #1 seeds. Our stake is one unit.

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