We have an exciting rematch of last year's AFC Championship. The Bengals will head to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. There’s a lot to consider in this matchup, so we will do our best to break this game down piece by piece. 

First, let’s look at the recent history between these two teams. The Chiefs and Bengals have played three times over the last two seasons. In the most recent matchup, the Bengals won the game by 3 points at home in Cincinnati. That win was largely due to a key turnover by Travis Kelce, which was the lone turnover in the game for either team. The Chiefs had a 4 point lead in the 4th quarter and were driving down the field, they hit a big pass to Kelce who fumbled. The Bengals proceeded to go right down the field and score a touchdown to take the lead. In the next Chiefs drive following the fumble, they missed a field goal to tie the game. The Bengals never let the Chiefs get the ball back, and the game ended 27-24 Bengals.

In last year's matchups, the Bengals trailed 28-17 in the regular season matchup. They outscored the Chiefs 17-3 in the second half and won the game 34-31. In last year’s AFC Championship game, the Chiefs led 21-10 at halftime. Kansas City made a key mistake right before halftime, getting tackled in bounds at the goal with no timeouts. The Bengals outscored the Chiefs 14-3 in the second half to force overtime, where their defense got a stop, and the Bengals won by a field goal 27-24. All three games between Joe Burrow & Patrick Mahomes were highly competitive, and decided by just 3 points.

On the offensive side of the ball, both of these teams are elite. The Chiefs don’t have the same explosiveness at the wide receiver position without Tyreek Hill, but Mahomes' numbers have actually become more efficient this season. The Chiefs offensive line is one of the best units in the NFL, and this offense still has plenty of skilled pass catchers led by Travis Kelce. The Bengals arguably have the best wide receiver trio in the league with Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. However, their offensive line remains a concern. The snow in Buffalo last week may have slowed the Bills pass rush down a bit, which took some pressure off of the Bengals line. In addition to that, the Bengals got out to a big lead and ran the ball well, which took even more pressure off of their offensive line. Joe Burrow did not seem to be bothered at all with the replacement pieces, but the Bengals offensive line will remain a key aspect of this game to keep an eye on. 

Let’s move to the defensive side of the ball. We know what both of these offenses can do, so the big question is which defense has a better chance to have success? Let’s start with the Chiefs defense. They’ve been very good in pass coverage, and ranked 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 55 during the regular season. The Chiefs weakness is defending the run and tackling, where they rank slightly below the league average. The Bengals defense is also very good in pass coverage. They have a decent pass rush in terms of pressure, but the Bengals defense ranked bottom 5 in the NFL in producing sacks. Cincinnati is an above average tackling team, but they have had struggles defending the run. In terms of which defense has the edge here, unfortunately it’s hard to decipher. Our numbers have these two ranked directly above/below one another, PFF favors the Chiefs defense, but the DVOA metrics favor the Bengals. You could make an argument for both teams on both sides of the ball, making this game feel like a true coin toss. 

Lastly, let’s take a quick look at how the market has reacted to this game. The Bengals opened up between a +1.5 and +2.5 underdog. The line quickly moved in the Bengals direction, and the Chiefs found themselves as far as a +2.5 point underdog earlier this week. As the week has progressed, the Chiefs have regained their status as the betting favorite, and currently sit -1.5 on most books. A lot of movement both ways here, so it will be interesting to see where the spread ends up by Sunday. 

To sum it all up, this game looks to be as much of a 50-50 matchup as you will ever find. We encourage all the bettors to do some research on how many points Arrowhead Stadium is worth, and how significant their home field is. Our official pick will be posted on Saturday well in advance of the game. All picks are available 100% free! Simply head to the "Sign Up" page and join the SteadyPicks team.