Quite frankly, this line doesn't make much sense to us. Maybe we are missing an injury, or some key information here, but nearly every respected data source or model we have looked at has Chattanooga winning this game outright. Our model has them winning by 2, KenPom calls for a 1 point win, and we’ve seen other models as high as 8-10 points in favor of the Mocs. In full transparency, when we see discrepancies this large, there is usually a reason for it. Whether it be an injury, a flu related illness, or any other undisclosed factor that could impact the game. It could also be none of those factors, and just a matter of UNCG being a higher graded team overall. We can’t identify a logical reason in our research, so we will trust the data and cautiously proceed with a half unit play. Chattanooga ranks 50th nationally in effective field goal percentage, whereas UNCG ranks 223rd in this metric. UNCG has a very good defense (43rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency), but we can’t ignore the inconsistencies of their offense. This is the second game of a two game road trip for UNCG. Chattanooga +3 is our bet.

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