This Miami Heat team has a tendency to play in close games. In 95 total games this season & postseason, 42 have been decided by 5 points or less (most in NBA). The Heat would have covered this +8.5 spread in over 80% of their 95 games. Miami Heat head coach Erik Spolestra does not get blown out often, and he holds a massive experience advantage on Celtics rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla. Historically speaking, teams coming off of a game 7 tend to struggle in game 1 of the following series. Dating back to the late 1980’s, teams are just 33-52 outright in this spot. This has occurred just once in the 2023 postseason. The Warriors played a game 7 against the Kings, and lost outright to the Lakers in game 1 of the following series as 5 point home favorites. Miami also has a two day rest advantage, and should have the fresher legs. One additional note to consider in this series. Boston scores nearly 40% of their total points from beyond the arc. This is the most amongst all remaining teams by a wide margin. If the Celtics shooters struggle, their offense as a whole takes a big hit. Miami has several productive perimeter defenders, and their coach Erik Spolestra does a great job scheming against teams who attack the perimeter. We are going to take the 8.5 points with the road dogs, and root for a low scoring defensive battle.

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